UFC Fight Night 116: Rockhold vs. Branch
Date: September 16, 2017
Arena: PPG Paints Arena
City: Pittsburgh, PA
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed back to Pittsburg, PA for the third time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 116: Rockhold vs. Branch. The 11-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7:30 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., with the main card getting going on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my plays…
Middleweight bout: Hector Lombard (-110) vs. Anthony Smith (-110)
Gabe’s Thoughts: One guy is one his way out, and the other guy may or may not be on his way up, this is a fight that could very well determine that. This is a big fight for both 185-pounders, as Lombard desperately needs a win just to regain some relevancy and Smith would greatly benefit from defeating a big name opponent. Both Lombard and Smith are finishers and generally look to put their opponents away, so I expect it to be no different in this contest. I like the total of Under 1.5 rounds for a play at +105 here, as I think there is a good chance one of them finds success and puts the other away. I see this fight ending inside the distance and I do favor the finish to come within the first seven and a half minutes of action in this 185-pound matchup scheduled for three rounds.
Gabe’s Call: Smith by T/KO (elbows and punches, 3:51 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+105)
Bantamweight bout: Luke Sanders (-235) vs. Felipe Arantes (+195)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Sanders is coming off the first official loss of his professional mixed martial arts career, which came at UFC 209 about six months ago against Iuri Alcantara. Sanders was dominating the bout and nearly had the Brazilian out of there a couple of times, but Alcantara latched onto a kneebar in the second round that forced Sanders to tap, giving Alcantara the come-from-behind victory. It was an impressive showing by Sanders despite the loss and he plans to get back on track this Satruday night. Standing in his way will be another Brazilian in the form of Felipe Arantes, who is coming off a near year-long layoff, where he came up short in a split decision to Erik Perez in enemy territory in Mexico City, which snapped his two-fight winning streak. Similar to Sanders’ bout against Alcantara, the only way I could see him losing this fight is if he gets caught in a submission. Despite being at a reach and potentially a technical striking disadvantage, I think he will have the edge on the feet due to his power. He will also have the wrestling advantage in this bout and I could see him employing it for a dominant performance. I like his chances of scoring a TKO stoppage or putting Alcantara away with a rear naked choke in this contest, and at +145, I think the Under 2.5 rounds is a solid play. It also keeps things safe in case Arantes pulls off the submission from his back.
Gabe’s Call: Sanders by T/KO (punches, 4:50 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+145)
