Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the main event of UFC Fight Night 116 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania as former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold takes on former World Series of Fighting champion David Branch.
David Branch (Record: 21-3, +360 Underdog, Power Ranking: B-)
The 35-year-old American is on a tremendous run of form, having not lost since a May 2012 bout against Anthony Johnson. Branch squeezed out a split decision victory in his last bout against Krzysztof Jotko. It was arguably the best win of his career.
As David Branch continued to rack up wins in the regional promotions in the United States, his aura continued to rise. By the time he reached the UFC, he developed a cult following amongst hardcore fans. The Renzo Gracie black belt doesn’t have the biggest power, the best submission game, or the most athleticism in the division, but his skill-set has continued to develop over the years and it’s clear he’s a well-rounded fighter. Branch isn’t a high volume striker. He only landed 39 significant strikes in his win over Jotko. Of those 39 strikes, only 24 of them came in the final 10 minutes of the bout. He’s certainly gotten better on the feet, but he does his best work on the ground. He’s a capable submission grappler (7 submission wins) and he can certainly hold an opponent on the mat. Furthermore, he’s durable with only two stoppage losses in his career.
Luke Rockhold (Record: 15-3, -450 Favorite, Power Ranking: A+)
The UFC middleweight enters Saturday’s main event for the first time in 15 months. In Rockhold’s last outing, he was knocked out by Michael Bisping in what was one of the more stunning results in modern MMA history.
Rockhold is the prototype of the new age of fighter in MMA. At 6’3” and possessing a 77-inch reach, he’s built extremely well for the middleweight division. Rockhold combines his physical gifts with being an all-around athlete with great footwork. Rockhold is very reminiscent of Jon Jones in regards to not having the biggest punching power in the division, but has pretty much other all the other tools to beat opponents. Where Rockhold differs is his kicking game. The California born-and-raised champion has an awesome array of kicks which he is able to land from range. It’s his kicking arsenal that allows him to set up the grappling and his work against the cage. Like most fighters at American Kickboxing Academy, he has a very good work ethic and fights at a high pace. Rockhold lands 4.17 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.12 strikes; a fantastic difference of 2.05 strikes per minute. As good as Rockhold is on the feet, he may be even better on the ground. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown a lot of variety in his submission setups and attempts. Of his 15 career wins, nine of them have come by submission. This has been a rather lengthy layoff for Rockhold and has been vulnerable defensively on the feet. All three of his losses have been by knockout.
Matchup
Headlining UFC Fight Night 116 is former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold taking on rising contender David Branch. Rockhold is coming off a 15-month layoff and that’s a viable concern. However, this is a fight he really should win. Rockhold has been in danger against quality strikers who can threaten with fast hands and power striking. If there’s a real weakness in Branch’s abilities, it is his standup. Branch has gotten better as a striker, but he’s still rather stiff in his technique overall and he doesn’t have much power in his hands. On the feet, Rockhold has a real advantage. His kicking ability is near the best in the sport. He can land with both accuracy and power. I expect him to have real success in this bout landing leg kicks. After he’s able to trouble Branch on the feet, Rockhold could follow up on the ground. He’s very strong in top position and he can deliver effective ground and pound or work in submission attempts. Either way, expect Rockhold to control this fight and never be in danger. Branch is pretty durable, so I would look to avoid the total. I do think that Rockhold is a rather safe parlay piece on this card at the currently lined moneyline price of -450.
