Preliminary Card Plays for UFC 215
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Date: September 9, 2017
Arena: Rogers Place
City: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada for the first time in promotional history with UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2. The 11-fight card will kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET, and prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., with the main card getting underway at 10 p.m. on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Here are my plays…
Women’s Bantamweight bout: Sara McMann (-270) vs. Ketlen Vieira (+230)
Gabe's Thoughts: I think Vieira should be a -220 betting favorite in this women’s bantamweight matchup, so I think she holds great value at her current offering underdog price of +230. I expect her to find success in defending McMann’s takedown attempts, keeping the fight standing and outstriking McMann over the course of three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, potentially securing a finish along the way. I expect the Brazilian to remain undefeated by picking up the biggest win of her professional mixed martial arts career over McMann this Saturday in Edmonton.
Gabe's Call: Vieira by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Vieira (+230)
Women’s Bantamweight bout: Ashlee Evans-Smith (-260) vs. Sarah Moras (+220)
Gabe's Thoughts: I agree with Evans-Smith being the betting favorite in this women’s 135-pound contest and do think the current betting line is spot on, which means I see no value in it in terms of a wager. I see this as being Evans-Smith’s fight to lose and think there is a good chance she earns a finish, too. While I don’t think she is worth playing straight up, I do like the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +205, as I do think she wins inside the distance at least half the time. There is also protection, in case Moras catches Evans-Smith with an armbar while being ground and pounded, which is a possibility, and the most likely scenario for a victory for Moras, in my opinion. I could see her edging out a decision, as well, if Evans-Smith does not mentally show up to fight. All in all, I think both fighters are more likely to win by finish than on the judges’ scorecards, so considering the Under is +205, I think that is the best play for this contest.
Gabe's Call: Evans-Smith by T/KO (punches, 2:36 round 2)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+205)