Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the main event of UFC on FOX 25 as former middleweight champion fights on home turf on Long Island for the first time in the UFC against Top 10 middleweight Kelvin Gastelum.
Kelvin Gastelum (Record: 13-2, 1 NC, -160 Favorite, Power Ranking: A-)
The San Jose born, Arizona raised middleweight has quickly moved up the rankings on the back of a three-fight winning streak, including back-to-back knockouts of Vitor Belfort and Tim Kennedy. However, the Belfort win was later overturned to a No-Contest after he tested positive for marijuana. His last loss was a very close split decision to Neil Magny back in 2015.
The Ultimate Fighter 17 winner started his UFC career at middleweight, moved down to welterweight, and he has once again moved up to middleweight. He appears to finally have a permanent home in the 185-pound division. The 25-year-old Gastelum, along with interim champion Robert Whittaker, have become perhaps the present and certainly the future of this weight class. Gastelum has proven to be a very good stand-up fighter. He has good movement and combines strikes well. He lands at a high clip for the division at 4.07 significant strikes per minute. He combines that with excellent striking defense. Gastelum only absorbs 2.74 strikes per minute. He successfully defends 63 percent of strikes attempted against him. While Gastelum first appeared to be a wrestling-centric fighter, he’s focused more on his striking. It’s not to say he isn’t capable of grappling and winning by submission (four of his 13 victories are by sub), but it’s no longer his focal point. At 185, Gastelum’s conditioning has been on point, and he’s been able to keep a pace that even workhorse Kennedy struggled to contend with, so that says a lot about the improvements he has made. As importantly, Gastelum is one of the division’s most durable fighters. He’s never been finished in any of his professional fights. He has two career losses, both by split decision, which goes to show that even when he’s lost, his fights have been very close.
Chris Weidman (Record: 13-3, +150 Underdog, Power Ranking: A-)
The former UFC middleweight champion has fought in just two promotions: Ring of Combat and the UFC. After going 4-0 in Ring of Combat, he made his way over to the UFC and beat some of the most talented grapplers in the sport in Demian Maia and Mark Munoz before dethroning middleweight kingpin Anderson Silva to become champion. Recently, Weidman has fallen on hard times, being knocked out in three of his last four fights. All of those losses were against top-level competition.
Weidman is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC’s middleweight division. He was a two-time junior college All-American at Nassau Community College before he transferred to Hofstra. At Hofstra, Weidman was also a two-time All-American and finished third in the NCAA Division I National Championships during his senior year. Weidman has worked hard on his striking, typically looking to maintain a range striking attack. With a 78-inch reach, he’s one of the longest fighters in the division. His striking volume is relatively modest at 2.99 significant strikes per minute while his strikes absorbed average out to 3.11 per minute. His title loss to Luke Rockhold significantly skews his defensive stats, as the fight should have been stopped in round three. Instead, Weidman absorbed an additional 50 strikes than he should have. Weidman starts out strong in most bouts, utilizing a high pace, but he has struggled as his fights have worn on. In bouts versus both Gegard Mousasi and Rockhold, he started slowing down after eight-10 minutes of cage time. For Weidman to be a viable contender moving forward, he needs to focus on his offensive wrestling. He’s secured at least one takedown in every single fight he has had in the UFC. Furthermore, he averages a whopping 3.60 takedowns per 15-minute fight. That’s one of the highest takedown averages in the UFC. On the ground, Weidman has one of the best top control games in the sport and is very good at delivering elbows. He has a sneaky good submission game as well from that position.
Matchup
Another key bout in the rise of Gastelum as he takes yet another fight on an opponent’s home turf against former middleweight champ Weidman in Long Island. Weidman has a history of starting strong in fights. He’s a significantly bigger fighter than Gastelum and can have his way in the opening stanza. I expect Weidman to even score a takedown in the opening round, but he will have trouble keeping Gastelum grounded. Gastelum has never been finished. He’s got an excellent chin and solid submission defense. He’s been fighting bigger fighters throughout his career, so I don’t expect him to fold against the early momentum that Weidman could have. The longer the fight progresses, the more it favors Gastelum. The former TUF winner lands over a significant strike a minute more than Weidman, and his conditioning will play into his strength. By the second and more so in the third round, look for Weidman’s pace to begin to slow down. At that point, look for Gastelum to take over the fight and turn it on as he out works the long time Serra-Long fighter. Gastelum could very well finish this fight late, as his volume striking and footwork really start to pay dividends. Even if he’s unable to finish, look for Gastelum to clearly win the final three rounds of this bout to earn a decision on the scorecards. Gastelum to win (-160) is right in the price range I have targeted for this bout. More interesting is the fact that Gastelum is currently (+195) to win by KO/TKO, which is also close to range. If that number drifts to over +225, then it will become a target for this bout too.
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