UFC Fight Night 113: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Date: July 22, 2017
Arena: SSE Hydro
City: Glasgow, Soctland
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading back to Glasgow, Scotland for the second time in promotional history this Sunday (July 16, 2017) with UFC Fight Night 113: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio. The 12-fight card kicks off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 12 p.m. (ET), and the prelims continue on FOX Sports 1 at 1 p.m. The main card begins on the same channel at 3 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Here are my live dogs for UFC Fight Night 113…
Middleweight: Jack Marshman (-450) vs. Ryan Janes (+360)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I am not at all high on Janes and don’t believe he is a UFC-caliber middleweight. However, I think he is heavily undervalued in this particular matchup. Marshman is no world beater, so I don’t think he should be a -450 favorite over Janes, or anyone in the UFC’s 185-pound division. I do favor him to get his hand raised here, by finish or decision, but at +360, the value is with Janes all day. Marshman should be a -230 betting favorite here, and this line is just way out of whack.
Gabe’s Call: Marshman by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Janes (+360)
Light Heavyweight bout: Khalil Rountree (-210) vs. Paul Craig (+175)
Gabe’s Thoughts: This fight probably ends early, and the Total for the Under 1.5 rounds is currently at -170, which I think is accurate, so I see no betting value in it. I think this is a close fight in the UFC’s 205-pound division. Craig is tough to put away, but I think Rountree possesses the tools on the feet, where he has the advantage heading into this bout to stop Craig, should the Scot fail to secure the takedown. The ground is where Craig will have the advantage, and should he take the fight there, he will stand a good chance of securing a submission for the victory. I do slightly lean towards Rountree to get his hand raised, but I think the betting value in this matchup is with Craig at +175, as I think he should be +120 heading into this contest.
Gabe’s Call: Rountree by T/KO (strikes, 0:34 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Craig (+175)