TUF 25 Finale: Johnson vs. Gaethje
Date: July 7, 2017
Arena: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, NV
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back home in Las Vegas, NV for International Fight Week with The Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale: Johnson vs. Gaethje slated for this Friday (July 7, 2017). The 12-fight card will get underway with prelims on UFC Fight Pass at 6 p.m. (ET), which continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7 p.m. The main card will start on the same channel at 9 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my top plays for the TUF 25 Finale…
Women’s Bantamweight bout: Aspen Ladd (-120) vs. Jessica Eye (+100)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Ladd is making her promotional debut against Eye in this contest, and I think she is the superior fighter of the two. She will be at size and probably strength disadvantages against Eye, but I think she has superior technique, which I would expect to benefit her both on the feet and especially on the mat. Eye is riding a four-fight skid and definitely has her back against the wall heading into this one. It is generally dangerous to bet against a fighter in that situation, but I think this is a tough matchup for Eye, tougher than her last one against Bethe Correia, where she came up short on the judges’ scorecards. I think Ladd should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite in this her Octagon debut, so I like her for a play at her current asking price of -120.
Gabe’s Call: Ladd by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ladd (-120)
Featherweight bout: Teruto Ishihara (-300) vs. Gray Maynard (+250)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Ishihara is coming off a unanimous-decision loss to Artem Lobov and will be looking to bounce back into the win column in this contest against TUF 5 winner Maynard, who suffered the same fate versus Ryan Hall last year at The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale. I think Ishihara winning by T/KO is the most likely outcome to this 145-pound contest, and I do think the Team Alpha Male fighter should be the betting favorite here. However, I do not agree with his current asking price of -300. At the current odds, I think we are looking at a dog or pass situation. While I do like the favorite, I am going to have to side with the dog at the betting window on Friday night. I think Maynard is capable of winning this fight by T/KO or decision, and it would not surprise me to see him get a choke either for old times’ sake. I think Maynard should be +150, so at +250, I think he is tough to pass up.
Gabe’s Call: Maynard by T/KO (punches, 0:11 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Maynard (+250)
