UFC 213
Date: July 8, 2017
Arena: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, NV
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back home in Las Vegas, NV for International Fight Week with UFC 213: Nunes vs. Shevchenko II slated for this Saturday (July 8, 2017). The 12-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action at 6:30 p.m. (ET), which will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m. The main card will get underway on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my top Over/Under totals for UFC 213…
Welterweight bout: Chad Laprise (-550) vs. Brian Camozzi (+425)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Laprise is stepping in on short notice for an injured Alan Jouban to take on Colorado’s Camozzi, who is in search of his first UFC victory. Camozzi lost via first-round TKO against Randy Brown in his promotional debut and hopes to get in the win column at 170 pounds. It’s a rare “winner versus loser” matchup in the UFC’s welterweight division, as Laprise is coming off a first-round TKO win over Thibault Gouti, and he is making his 170-pound debut in his contest. I am in complete agreement with the betting odds in that Laprise should be a massive favorite heading into this contest. I see him getting the better of Camozzi on the feet for what he likely be an early T/KO finish. I think Laprise should be a -450 betting favorite in this contest, so -550 is a little too much juice for me. However, I see value in the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +105, as I think that line should be at -180.
Gabe’s Call: Laprise by T/KO (strikes, 4:06 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+105)
Bantamweight bout: Rob Font (-300) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+250)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Font is coming off a first-round TKO win over Matt Schnell and will be looking to make it two in a row in this contest when he takes on the Brazilian, who last saw action at UFC Fight Night 98 eight months ago, where he scored a third-round knockout of Enrique Briones to earn his second consecutive victory. While I agree with Font being the betting favorite in this matchup, I don’t agree with his current asking price of -300. I see this 135-pound scrap as a dog or pass situation, as I think there’s some value in Andrade at +250. That said, I think there is more value in the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -140, because despite of who gets his hand raised, I think the victory will likely come after the 2.5-round mark, and most likely on the judges’ scorecards. I can’t fault anybody for taking a shot on the dog here. But for me, if I gotta make one play, I like the Over.
Gabe’s Call: Font by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-140)
