The co-main event of UFC on FOX 15 is a three-round middleweight bout between Ronaldo Souza and Chris Camozzi. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Souza is a -1375 favorite (bet $1375 to win $100) while Camozzi is a +900 underdog (bet $100 to win $900). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Souza at -1050 and Camozzi at +550, and the bettors are all over Souza in this spot thus far, driving the line way up. This is a mismatch and Souza absolutely deserves to be a huge favorite considering what happened the first time he and Camozzi met. Here’s why. Souza (21-3, 1 NC) is one of the top-ranked middleweight fighters in the world. The 35-year-old Brazilian is the former Strikeforce middleweight champion and with an impressive win over Camozzi, could jump ahead of the Luke Rockhold/Lyoto Machida winner for the next 185lb title shot. Souza is currently riding a seven-fight win streak and overall has won 11 of his last 12 fights with his lone loss in the last six years coming to Rockhold. Souza is 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Gegard Mousasi, Francis Carmont, Yushin Okami and Camozzi. He has finished three of his four UFC bouts, which is extremely impressive considering his opposition. A world-class submission artist who has 15 career wins by tapout, Souza also has excellent wrestling and his striking has really improved over the years, and he has two knockout wins during his current win streak. He is an amazing fighter and one of the most well-rounded guys at middleweight, no doubt about it. He was supposed to fight Yoel Romero at UFC on FOX 15 but after Romero pulled out, he’s now taking on Camozzi in a rematch of a fight he won two years ago in the first round. Camozzi (21-9) is making his return to the UFC on short notice after going 2-0 on the regional circuit with two stoppage wins. The 28-year-old American is 6-6 overall in the UFC with wins over the likes of Nick Ring, Luiz Cane and Nick Catone and losses to Souza, Lorenz Larkin and Rafael Natal. Camozzi is a very tough who is known for his exceptional ability to take a punch. He has not been knocked out in 30 career bouts despite facing some very good middleweights. Aside from being tough, Camozzi is an effective kickboxer on the feet who throws a good volume of strikes to win decisions for the most part. He doesn’t have much power, but his volume is difficult for his opponents to deal with. His biggest issue, though, is his takedown defence. He gets taken down quite a bit in his fights, and because of that he’s lost some very close decisions just because his opponent was in top control. But if that happens against Souza, it’s hard to see him even surviving to decision. While Camozzi has relatively solid submission defence, we’ve seen him fight Souza already and the fight didn’t last long once it hit the mat. So unless he’s improved his sub D even more in the last two years, it’s hard to not see the same thing happening again. We’ve already seen this fight, and absolutely nothing has changed in the two years since these two first met. The first time around, Souza finished Camozzi in the first round with a submission — at the 3:37 mark of round one — and this time I think he could finish him even quicker than he did before, likely by submission once again. I like Camozzi a lot and respect him as a competitor, but he is not in Souza’s class and this is a very unnecessary rematch, although I do have to give Camozzi props for stepping up on short notice. The line on Souza is extremely high, but I do believe it’s justified, although it’s difficult to see value in such a high line. It’s probably better to go for the prop on Souza inside the distance here, or even the UNDER 1.5 rounds total as the odds are much better on those, and I see both of them winning and the price is much cheaper than the Jacare moneyline.
