This weekend, Cage Warriors Fighting Championships will be putting on one of the biggest cards the organization has ever seen, as the UK-based promotion travels to the 12,000 seat Echo Arena in Liverpool for Cage Warriors 57. They’ve brought along plenty of star power to fill those seats as well, as fighters like Paul Daley, Ronnie Mann and impressive Liverpool prospect Danny Roberts are featured on the card. MMA Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for Cage Warriors 57 yesterday at Several Bookmakers, and all three of those featured fighters are heavy favorites. Take a look at the full opening odds, and where the lines sit as of today: ——————– Paul Daley -900 Lukasz Chlewicki +500 Danny Roberts -750 Alldric Cassata +450 Ronnie Mann -705 Jose Luis Zapater +435 Ali Arish -190 Jack Mason +150 Norman Paraisy -350 Leeroy Barnes +250 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Some long odds for the top three fights on this card, as nearly everyone expects Daley, Roberts and Mann to cruise in their fights. I can’t say I disagree in any of the cases. Paul Daley is a superior wrestler to Lukasz Chlewicki, and when Daley is able to dictate where a fight takes place, we’ve all seen how devastating he can be. Chlewicki has a powerful right hand and some decent ground and pound, but they are weapons that Daley should easily be able to avoid and even counter with his vaunted left hook. The line on this fight has moved massively in Daley’s favor, as he now sits at -1700, while Chlewick is +800. From a record perspective, Aldric Cassata would look to have the smallest chance of the three big underdogs. However, his technical grappling skill is the single biggest threat to any of the large favorites, especially since the only chink Danny Roberts has shown in his game thus far has been in the submission game. By no means am I recommending a bet on Aldric Cassata at +600, but Roberts being a -1200 favorite so early in his career is a bit too much in my eyes. He should still win comfortably, but using that line wouldn’t give you all that much extra value in a parlay, and having a bet fall apart on a fight like this is unnecessary. Zapater is a fighter who relies on his grappling game, and while Mann has been outwrestled by bigger featherweights in the past, this fight is at 135, and Mann has only ever been submitted by Hatsu Hioki in his 28-fight career. Zapater is also 36 and has been knocked out in his last two fights. Mann should be able to make it three in this one, and him moving to a -1200 favorite, while steep, seems justified. The comeback on Zapater is +600, and I have a hard time seeing people betting it even at that point. Moving on to the last two main card fights, both are viewed as much more competitive and will probably carry the balance of the action from this point on. The most interesting opening line to me was Jack Mason being a +150 underdog to Ali Arish who opened at -190. Apparently the public felt the same way, as the line has dropped to an even pick em, -120 on each side. Mason is one of the bigger welterweights in Cage Warriors and is a decent wrestler, which has proved problematic for his opponents. Arish, despite a 19-2 record, is not a particularly known quantity, which has probably led to the bulk of the action coming in on Mason early. If the line continues its current trajectory, Arish could be worth a play himself, as his well-rounded game poses danger wherever the fight goes. Finally, the only play I’m likely to make at the current odds is on Norman Paraisy. I bet on Paraisy when he briefly moved to an underdog price in his last fight against Chris Fields, and if not for a point deduction he would have won that fight. Fields is better than Barnes, and Paraisy was winning that fight, so I see him winning here as well, barring another deduction. The reason I like Paraisy at -230 as perhaps a parlay leg is because of Lee Barnes’ reliance on the submission game. For all of Paraisy’s faults — namely his cardio — he is tough to finish in any manner. Barnes has never won a decision in his career, and Paraisy is the better fighter in the striking and wrestling departments. There is some risk in this play, but if there is one bet to make right now, it is Paraisy.
