Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look ahead to the main event at UFC 212 as Jose Aldo welcomes Max Holloway to Brazil in a featherweight title unification bout.
Jose Aldo (Record: 26-2, -105 Underdog, Power Ranking: A++)
The featherweight champion and longtime kingpin of the division enters his UFC 212 fight on the back of one of his best performances to date. In a rematch with Frankie Edgar, Aldo got the best of his opponent, winning a clear decision to regain the featherweight championship he lost to Conor McGregor in 2015.
The Novo Uniao trained fighter has been competing professionally since 2004. Before taking up MMA, he was an avid soccer player who had an eye on playing professionally. His soccer skill set plays a key part in his MMA ability. Aldo has some of the strongest legs in the sport, and that gives him the ability to land tremendous leg kicks. Aldo has huge power in his leg kicks, which allow him to slow down his opponents. Aldo’s output is not the highest in the division (3.28 significant strikes per minute), but he’s very effective at winning rounds and turning it on when he needs. The other key to Aldo’s soccer background is his takedown defense. Aldo’s hip strength is incredible, and he’s proven to be very difficult to take down. Aldo has been taken to the mat just seven times in his combined 17 fights in the UFC and WEC. He has a 92 percent takedown rate and has never been taken down more than twice in a single bout during his time in those two promotions. While Aldo is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, he’s rarely on the mat in any of his bouts because of his tremendous takedown defense. Opponents are forced to fight him on the feet, and Aldo has had a striking advantage in just about every fight he has been in. Aldo is a fast starter, but he has had some struggles in the fifth round of his bouts as he has gotten tired. Unfortunately for his opponents, Aldo has been way up on the scorecards by round five, so he has not been too exploited.
Max Holloway (Record: 17-3, -115 Favorite, Power Ranking: A++)
The Hawaiian-born fighter is looking to unify the featherweight championship and become the undisputed champion for the first time. Holloway has won 10 straight fights in the UFC and has the third-longest active winning streak in the promotion, trailing just Jon Jones and Demetrious Johnson. Holloway won the interim championship by soundly beating Anthony Pettis in winning by third-round TKO.
The 25-year-old Holloway has been on a heck of a run beating Jeremy Stephens, Ricardo Lamas and Pettis in succession. Holloway has quickly become one of the best fighters in the sport, and it’s his approach that makes him a very difficult opponent. Holloway is constantly pressuring opponents, and he fights at a tremendous pace. Holloway lands 5.67 significant strikes per minute, which is one of the highest outputs in the division. Furthermore, he only absorbs 3.74 significant strikes per minute. What sets Holloway apart from other strikers is his combination work. Holloway throws a lot of unorthodox strikes, but he follows them up with three, four, five or even more combination punches. His output is tremendous, and he is very difficult for opponents to contend with. As Holloway has gotten more experienced, his takedown defense has improved dramatically. He hasn’t been to the mat by an opponent since 2014 and has a takedown defense percentage of 83 percent overall. Holloway, like Aldo, forces opponents to fight him on the feet. Holloway is hittable, but he has shown to have a granite chin. He’s never been knocked out in a fight and quite honestly hasn’t even been close to being finished by an opponent with strikes.
Matchup
In what is one of the best matchups of the year on paper, Aldo and Holloway square off for the featherweight championship. Both of these fighters tend to have the same game plan: keep the fight standing and beat their opponents in a striking exchange. Both fighters have had a lot of success doing this, and it will be fascinating who gets the best of the other in this bout. Aldo is a more traditional striker with a kickboxing approach. He tends to like to fight on the counter and time his shots with power and accuracy. Holloway is much more unorthodox in his approach, landing strikes at odd angles and coming at his opponents with maximum aggression. Aldo will be fighting on home turf in this bout, which should give him some advantage, but what I think what is the difference in this fight is Holloway’s volume. Holloway will continue to press forward in this fight, and he’ll force Aldo to be more active than he normally is in his bouts. This constant pressure will slow Aldo down, giving Holloway the advantage in this fight. Both are durable, so I think it’s likely this one goes to the scorecards, but it’s Holloway’s volume that should be the difference and win him the decision. While durability is key on both sides, Holloway has rarely been phased in his fights. Aldo is getting older and was finished quickly by McGregor only a couple years ago. Holloway scorecards no action (-160) is a great way to bet this fight. A decision is likely in this bout, but if there is a finish, it will most likely come from the hands of Holloway. He throws a lot more volume, has shown to have a tremendous chin and rarely gets hurt at all in his fights.
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