Much of the UFC’s spring schedule has already been sorted out, and matchmakers Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard have begun to fill in the summer events for the promotion. However, up until now there are no betting odds for any events beyond June 3rd’s UFC 212. That changed today as MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the lines for several future contests, including the heavyweight trilogy between former UFC champion Fabricio Werdum and former Strikeforce champ Alistair Overeem.
Also included in the new set of odds are a pair of high profile bouts on UFC on Fox 24. Michelle Waterson and Rose Namajunas could determine the next strawweight contender in their bout, and the same could be said for “Jacare” Souza and Robert Whittaker in the middleweight division – assuming Michael Bisping ever decides to defend his title against an actual middleweight contender.
The main event of the following week’s card in Nashville now has a line as well. Cub Swanson will be looking to build off of the momentum he gained in knocking off Doo Ho Choi, but he’ll have a tough task ahead of him. The flowiest man in all of Ireland will await him in the country music capital of the world, as Artem Lobov gets his much overdue spot in a main event. The lightweight scrap between Al Iaquinta and Diego Sanchez also had a line added.
Speaking of main events, Stockholm will be treated to a light heavyweight showdown between their native son, Alexander Gustafsson, and longtime Brazilian standout Glover Teixeira. In an extremely shallow light heavyweight division, a win of this magnitude could easily push either man back into a title shot once Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson have settled their business.
Finally, the two most recent women to challenge for Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s strawweight title square off to determine the No. 2 115-pound fighter in the world. Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz each found some success against the champion in their own unique ways, and now we will see how their styles match up together.
Kalikas released each of these seven new lines at Several Bookmakers, but you can get a peek at them first here…
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UFC on Fox 24
April 15, 2017
Kansas City, Missouri
Michelle Waterson -105
Rose Namajunas -135
Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135
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Robert Whittaker +150
Ronaldo Souza -190
Over 1.5 -130
Under 1.5 -110
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UFC Fight Night 108
April 22, 2017
Nashville, Tennessee
Artem Lobov +365
Cub Swanson -555
Over 3.5 -130
Under 3.5 -110
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Diego Sanchez +250
Al Iaquinta -350
Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100
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UFC Fight Night 109
May 28, 2017
Stockholm, Sweden
Glover Teixeira +135
Alexander Gustafsson -175
Over 2.5 -150
Under 2.5 +110
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UFC 212
June 3, 2017
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +260
Claudia Gadelha -380
Over 2.5 -280
Under 2.5 +200
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UFC 213
July 8, 2017
Las Vegas, Nevada
Fabricio Werdum +110
Alistair Overeem -150
Over 1.5 -160
Under 1.5 +120
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Brad’s Analysis: Looking at Waterson and Namajunas, it seems that Waterson is simply more technical in each area than Namajunas. I also believe that Waterson disposed of any thoughts that she was too small for 115 after putting on some muscle and being able to dominate Paige VanZant in her last outing. As long as Waterson can deal with Namajunas’ aggression on the feet, I think this is her fight to lose, and this could be her ticket to a title shot.
It’s really a shame that despite being 7-1 in the UFC — after coming into the promotion already as a top ranked middleweight — Jacare still hasn’t received a title shot. Now 37 years old, a loss here might mean that he never gets one. Robert Whittaker seems to be a difficult style matchup for Souza, given his excellent takedown defense and clean striking skills. He has a speed and power advantage on the feet, but the gap there isn’t as big as Jacare’s advantage should he be able to get this fight to the ground. I believe that eventually Jacare will find a takedown, and once on top there are few fighters who are a match beneath him.
If Swanson wants to have a fun fight, I think he does and still manages to beat Lobov in a 25-minute striking battle. He just faced a much more talented, much more dangerous striker and got the better of him. If Swanson comes into this fight with the mindset to win, he takes Lobov down at will and comes away with easy 50-45 scorecards, although perhaps not in as fun a fight. Either way, it’s his fight, and this is too big a step for the flowy one.
Disagree with the decision all you want, but Iaquinta was at least competitive enough with Jorge Masvidal in a striking battle to steal a win. I can’t imagine a universe in which Sanchez does the same. Iaquinta is also a stout defensive wrestler, and won’t give in to Sanchez’ pace if this fight moves into the latter rounds. I don’t think that happens though, as Iaquinta will become the second fighter to stop Sanchez in the past year.
As much concern as there always seems to be about Teixeira’s preparation, the man always seems to show up with the right game plan in mind. However, finding that gameplan against Gustafsson may prove more difficult than against Jarod Cannonier, Patrick Cummins, or Ovince Saint-Preux. Gustafsson won’t be taken down as easily as Cannonier or OSP, and is a more talented and durable striker than Cummins. I still think striking and hoping to score a big blow is Teixeira’s best shot to win this fight, I’m just not enamored with his chances of doing so. In a somewhat tentative bout, I expect Gustafsson to get the decision in front of his home crowd.
The only fighter Kowalkiewicz hasn’t given up a takedown against in her UFC career thus far is Heather Jo Clark. Now she’s facing perhaps the best wrestler in all of women’s MMA in Gadelha. Yes, Kowalkiewicz is going to have the cardio edge in round three, and she might be able to steal that round if she can finally stuff the powerful takedowns of the Brazilian. That won’t matter however, as Gadelha will already have the first two rounds in the bag, and given her new training situation, she may even be able to work her preferred game well into the final round as well. I’d say 30-27 Gadelha is more likely than a Kowalkiewicz win here.
Despite these two having fought twice — and having been very different fighters both times — each of those fights followed a familiar pattern. Werdum didn’t really want much to do with Overeem on the feet, and Overeem was outmatched on the ground. The only thing that’s really changed is how willing Werdum will be to exchange standing. While I believe that sticking with his striking in the second fight would have garnered him a win, I’m not so sure about that now. Overeem has nearly perfected his counter game, and as we saw recently, Werdum can leave himself wide open on entry (although the reckless aggression he displayed against Stipe Miocic was atypical of him). If Werdum eats a straight left on his way in, his chin could be on the way out, and so could he. Even if he does get inside, Overeem is perhaps the only fighter in the heavyweight division who can really dominate Werdum from the clinch. On the flip side, if Werdum flops to his back like he did in their Strikeforce bout, you can almost hear the judges’ decision already. It will be a tricky balance to strike for Werdum, and I think that could result in a slow-paced kickboxing bout, which is exactly what you don’t want against this iteration of Overeem. I’m not sure if a knockout happens, but I like Overeem to continue his impressive run of late, which would likely earn him a rematch against the Miocic-Junior dos Santos winner later this year.
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