On Saturday (May 20, 2017), MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the full betting odds for UFC Fight Night 109 at Several Bookmakers. The Stockholm card is headlined by Alexander Gustafsson, as he attempts to work his way back to another title shot in the light heavyweight division against Glover Teixeira. Keep reading as MMAOddsBreaker.com betting analyst Brad Taschuk gives his initial thoughts on the bouts below…
Ben Saunders (-165) vs. Peter Sobotta (+125): If this turns into a high-volume striking battle, Saunders has the advantage — although his chin getting cracked could be a concern — other than that, I actually like Sobotta in this fight. Everything about Sobotta’s game is significantly better now than it was during his first UFC tenure. His striking is more measured, accurate and definitely carries more pop while his takedowns are well-timed and allow him to use a fairly no-nonsense ground game from top position. He’ll be able to strike competitively with Saunders and mix in those takedowns when needed to steal rounds. On the ground, Saunders will try to wrap him up in rubber guard, but I think Sobotta is capable of passing through that threat and maintaining position.
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-260) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+180): If you get knocked out by Sergio Moraes, I feel like you’re getting knocked out by Alhassan. Akhmedov will struggle to get his takedowns going, as Alhassan’s Judo background gives him excellent balance and takedown defense. Once that has been established, the speed and power difference on the feet will become evident very quickly, and Akhmedov doesn’t have the chin to survive too long. Round 1 and TKO props could prove interesting here, as the moneyline will likely be out of the range I’d like.
Jack Hermansson (-170) vs. Alex Nicholson (+130): I was surprised by how Hermansson’s fight against Cezar Ferreira played out. I thought Hermansson would have a big advantage on the feet and be able to keep it there, but Mutante’s ground game impressed the hell out of me. That fight changed my opinion of Mutante more than Hermansson, and I like this matchup better for the Swede. Nicholson brings knockout power and a solid chin into this fight, but Hermansson should be able to negate much of the threat by closing the distance and working Nicholson over in the clinch — and potentially on the ground if he wants. As proven in the Alvey fight, Nicholson is tough to stop with strikes, so I’m expecting a decision for Hermansson.
Nordine Taleb (-300) vs. Oliver Enkamp (+220): I have a decent amount of respect for organizations like Superior Challenge, but Enkamp just ended up on the main card of a Superior Challenge show for the first time last month, and he did so in facing a guy who (at the time) was 9-8… and whose name sounds like an off-brand sex pill that Jon Jones might take (Frodi Vitalis). Enkamp simply isn’t ready for this level of competition physically or technically. The young Swede has a solid karate base that he has converted over to MMA and capitalizes well on mistakes his opponents make on the ground. But Taleb is well-equipped to deal with that kind of style on the feet, and he’s just going to be massive compared to Enkamp. I think we may see a reversion to wrestler Taleb once he gets in the cage and feels the strength advantage he has.
Pedro Munhoz (-505) vs. Damian Stasiak (+335): Stasiak is a good grappler. Munhoz is a great grappler. Stasiak doesn’t offer much on the feet. Munhoz was competitive with Jimmie Rivera and Raphael Assuncao standing. Perhaps the best hope for Stasiak is that Munhoz has some Blackhouse… “training supplements” in his system, and the loss he suffers here eventually gets overturned to a No-Contest. I just don’t see any way this goes well for the Polish fighter.
Chris Camozzi (-190) vs. Trevor Smith (+150): This one is trickier than I first thought. Camozzi has obvious striking and cardio advantages, but his takedown defense is such a liability that Smith could get on top for the first two rounds and then survive late. Smith isn’t the most powerful wrestler, so I’m going to have a bit of faith that Camozzi can keep this one standing long enough to score on the feet, but I doubt I’ll like the price. If only I could talk to Camozzi prior to this fight and give him some advice.
Bojan Velickovic (-135) vs. Nico Musoke (-105): It’s been so long since we’ve seen Musoke that this fight is almost impossible to call. If he’s the same fighter he was back in January 2015, then this is going to be a razor-thin decision, as both Musoke and Velickovic always seem to be in close decisions. Musoke’s layoff would have me lean towards Velickovic in that case, as who knows where the Swede’s cardio will be at following the layoff. The other way to look at this fight is that Musoke could have made tremendous improvements in his time away, and he may emerge a far better fighter, but we can only go by what we’ve seen so far, so close decision it is. If a +3.5 points handicap is out there around even money, I’d take it either way.
Darren Till (-275) vs. Jessin Ayari (+195): Throw a right hand for me, just one time Darren. He’s another guy who has been off for an extended period since his last UFC fight (October 2015), but given his age I have to expect improvements out of him. Perhaps even an attack from the right side of his body. Ayari impressed me more than I expected against Jim Wallhead, but I think he struggles with the hard southpaw attack of Till. Neither of these fighters is particularly eager to take this one to the ground, so it all depends on who gets the edge standing, and Till always seems to see things swing his way by the mid-point of his fights, so I’ll side with him.
Marcin Held (-300) vs. Damir Hadzovic (+220): This could very well be the fight that earns Held his pink slip from the UFC, even though he should be 1-1 in the organization. Hadzovic has zero name value, but he is a solid striker with good takedown defense. Perhaps Held can get tricky and find a way to get this to the mat — where he would have a massive advantage — but I’m not particularly confident in him, and as a pretty sizable favorite, my money is definitely staying away regardless of how talented he is. If Hadzovic can stop the takedowns, he’ll blast Held in the clinch and will wear him down over the course of this fight. A late stoppage is unlikely, but not completely out of the question.
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