UFC 161 MTS Centre, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada Saturday, June 15, 2013 Light heavyweight bout: Alexis Davis (-380) vs. Rosi Sexton (+315) Fight Breakdown: The first women’s bantamweight bout on a Canadian UFC card takes place this Saturday as Canada’s own Alexis Davis takes on Britain’s Rosi Sexton in a three-round fight. Davis is currently a -380 favorite (bet $380 to win $100) while Sexton is a +315 underdog (bet $100 to win $315) at Several Bookmakers. Davis (13-5) is one of the best female bantamweight fighters on the planet and earned her spot in the UFC with a brilliant submission win over Shayna Baszler at Invicta FC 4. The 28-year-old Davis is a black belt in BJJ and is a very solid striker and is arguably the most well-rounded female fighter in the world right now. Against Sexton, Davis is going to have a giant size advantage and although Sexton is a capable ground fighter and striker in her own right I think Davis just a little bit better in every area of the game and all those edges should help her out here. Sexton (13-2) is making her UFC debut this weekend as well. The 35-year-old is one of the best women fighters to ever step into the cage but unfortunately for her the UFC didn’t have women when she was younger. Now in the later stages of her career, Sexton is moving up a weight class from 125 to 135 pounds and will be taking on women who are equally as dangerous as her only bigger. And that, to me, spells trouble. I see Sexton as a huge underdog in this fight and unless she can get a lucky KO on Davis (very unlikely) or catch her on the ground if Davis makes a mistake (also unlikely), I see Sexton being dominated in all areas of the game and losing by stoppage. The fact she hasn’t fought in over a year really hurts her chances of pulling off the upset, too. Fight Prediction: Sexton is a decent veteran but she has nothing to offer Davis in this fight. This is Davis’ fight to lose, and she can win the fight in any way she wants to. Even though Sexton is a solid fighter on the ground, Davis is even better and she’s much bigger and I see her eventually sinking in a submission of sorts and coaxing out a tapout win out of Sexton. Adam’s Pick: Davis via submission (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I don’t see Davis losing this fight. I think that she should be capped at closer to -700 so at -380 she’s definitely worth throwing into a parlay and I think there’s some value in the Davis inside the distance line at -135. Ultimately though I’ll say just include Davis in a parlay with someone like Roy Nelson or another favorite that you like on the card.
