With the full slate of odds for UFC 211 released on Thursday (May 4, 2017) at Several Bookmakers, it’s time to take a closer look at the fantastic slate of matchups which is now less than two weeks away. While the odds for the top six bouts on the card have been released for some time, I’ll offer my quick thoughts on those as well. UFC 211 goes down on May 13th from Dallas and features a pair of title bouts at the top of the card.
The main event between Stipe Miocic and Junior dos Santos saw a drastic shift from the odds in their first meeting. Back in 2014, dos Santos opened a -270 favorite and closed at -400. Back in February, the odds for the rematch were released, and Miocic was a -245 favorite. However, despite the changed opinion of the oddsmakers, betting action has come in on dos Santos to bring the bout down to nearly a pick em. Currently, Miocic sits as a -125 favorite, with the comeback on dos Santos at +105.
Given the opening price, I can’t blame bettors for coming in on dos Santos even if it’s not the same course of action I would’ve taken. However, at the price now, it’s hard not to like Miocic. He was extremely competitive in their first meeting, and to my eyes has grown more as a fighter. He still gets hit a bit too much to feel truly confident about picking him, but I believe his pace will be something that dos Santos isn’t able to stand up to this time around. The former champion’s last two bouts have been fought at an extremely slow pace, and that more cautious approach has garnered mixed results. If dos Santos lets Miocic get into a rhythm, I think it will be difficult for the Brazilian to break it unless he’s able to land one massive shot — something which he really hasn’t done since his first fight against Cain Velasquez. Dos Santos exhibited otherworldly durability for much of his career, but perhaps the Overeem loss signified the end of his ability to absorb punishment to that degree. I’ll take Miocic via late TKO, and I like the current price for a play.
I find the strawweight title bout much more difficult to call. Andrade (+140) is clearly the more explosive of the two fighters, and we’ve seen Jedrzejczyk (-160) get her bell rung in each of her last few fights. Could Andrade be the one to put her away? Certainly possible. Could Andrade have early success with takedowns like Claudia Gadelha, but not fatigue as badly and hold up better in the striking late? That’s a possibility too. However, equally likely is Jedrzejczyk simply being the more skilled tactician and breaking down another opponent over 25 minutes, especially given that this will be Andrade’s first experience with championship rounds. Still, if I had to pick a side on this one from a betting perspective, I’d look at the challenger, as I think her pressure can make the champion uncomfortable in the striking exchanges, and her strength in the clinch can allow her to replicate some of Gadelha’s success inside. I have a hard time seeing myself betting this one though.
And on the complete opposite side of the spectrum, I’m already heavily invested in Frankie Edgar. Yair is good. He’s fun. He does weird and wacky stuff in there. But this is a quantum leap from any other level of competition he’s faced. To me, only being -140 right now, Edgar is being underestimated once again. Yair can certainly close the holes in his game that made him competitive with Alex Caceres, but to do it in less than a year to the point that Edgar and Mark Henry won’t be able to exploit them? That would shock me.
I’ve been pretty successful when it comes to Demian Maia fights in his current run, and I was already a fan of his commitment to the most successful one-dimensional game in modern MMA. That makes this one a bit tricky for me. Maia is plus money once again (+115 currently) against Jorge Masvidal (-135), and that makes this incredibly tempting to bet. However, I’m unsure if that temptation comes from the actual matchup, my fandom of Maia, or my growing disdain for the group of Masvidal fans claiming how underrated he is (despite there almost certainly being more claiming he’s underrated than actually underrating him). From the technical side of things, Masvidal does have excellent takedown defense, but he’s also prone to defensive grappling lapses, and Maia’s takedown game is particularly unique and troubling to most fighters. Still, Masvidal will light him up on the feet should this spend any significant time at range. I think this one comes down Maia’s commitment to making his grappling work, and I’m willing to wager that he does it one more time to finally get the title shot the UFC seems so hesitant to award him.
Henry Cejudo looked every bit the part of the Golden Gloves prodigy who transitioned to MMA (with a little pit stop in between to win an Olympic gold in wrestling) in his last outing against Joseph Benavidez. I thought Cejudo won the fight, and showed tremendous growth in his game in the process. That warrants the current -380 price on him. Motivation seems like it can be an issue for him though, which makes a step down to Sergio Pettis trickier than you’d imagine given his last performance. If Cejudo wants to strike with Pettis, he’s going to be in for a different style than he faced against Benavidez, as Pettis is much more adept at working from a longer range. Should Cejudo not be dialed in and able to close the distance regularly, he could give Pettis the oppotunity to score regularly. I still think Cejudo can get inside, do work with his hands, clinch, and takedowns (should he desire) to win a decision, but I’m not interested in paying the price here.
After his embarassing loss to Conor McGregor, what does Eddie Alvarez have left? I’m not questioning the man’s heart once he gets into a fight, or his desire to win, but where does he see his career going from here? I’m sure that he has difficulty seeing himself with a UFC belt wrapped around his waist again, and that could be just the letdown Dustin Poirier needs to win this fight. Poirier is still yet to reach that mountaintop, and with McGregor standing atop it he has an extra bit of motivation to finally earn the title shot that has eluded him over a lengthy UFC career. Poirier’s technical arsenal runs a bit deeper than that of Alvarez, but the Philly native has proven the more durable of the two. Will that still be the case after getting dropped approximately 74 times by McGregor? Who knows, but standing up to Poirier’s shots and landing one of his own in return was probably his best way to win this fight, and it’s an option he may not even have any more.
I spent far too much time covering the lines we already knew, so these next ones for the rest of the UFC 211 card will be brief…
Chas Skelly (-265) vs. Jason Knight (+185): Knight is fun, and he’s already far surpassed my expectations of him when he entered the UFC, but I think Skelly can give him the same trouble that Kawajiri did in his UFC debut and put him on his back a lot. I give Knight credit that he’s not just sitting in rubberguard and losing rounds now, so that will make this fight interesting, but as long as Skelly’s cardio holds up, I think he controls enough of the grappling to take a decision.
Dave Branch (-120) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (-120): I really want Branch to have a successful UFC run, but this is an incredibly tough return for him. Branch still relies on his top control when all else fails, but that will be nearly impossible to garner against Jotko. Branch has improved his striking significantly, so this will be competitive — too competitive for me to bet — but I like what Jotko has been adding to his game, and I think he picks up a big win here in the fight that has all the makings of a split decision.
James Vick (-275) vs. Polo Reyes (+195): I don’t like that Reyes dropped the “Marco” from his name. It shows a lack of confidence and identity. It also has absolutely no bearing on this fight, as unless Marco Polo lands the biggest right hand of his life, he’s outmatched by Vick in this one.
Jessica Aguilar (-180) vs. Cortney Casey (+140): It’s been nearly two years and exactly one torn ACL since we last saw Aguilar. At 34, and with little chance of winning a UFC title, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of performance she returns with. Casey always shows up, and is one of the more physical fighters at strawweight. I could see that creating issues for Aguilar as she tries to get her wrestling going, and if her cardio isn’t 100 percent, so I’ll take Casey despite the wrestling deficit she faces here.
Gabriel Benitez (-185) vs. Enrique Barzola (+145): Benitez has shown a ton of improvement since his stint on TUF: LA, while Barzola still looks like his game is several distinct pieces that he’s trying to fit together, but it just hasn’t happened yet. I expect Benitez to batter Barzola from the outside with kicks, but have a difficult time doing enough to stop the Peruvian.
Jared Gordon (-150) vs. Michel Quinones (+110): On a card with 14 fights, I don’t have much desire to bet a fight between two debuting fighters who I have only seen a handful of times prior to coming to the UFC. My pick will be Gordon, but that’s based more on my belief that he’s the better athlete and has the higher ceiling of these two.
Rashad Coulter (-120) vs. Chase Sherman (-120): Coulter punches really hard, and Sherman seems to like getting punched in the face. If Coulter was facing someone who had any desire to get the fight to the ground, I’d pick against him since he looked completely lost on the mat in his lone loss, but that’s not Sherman’s MO.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov (-260) vs. Joachim Christensen (+180): I didn’t expect Christensen to be good when he came to the UFC, but I expected him to be better than what he’s shown. I’m not sure Antigulov gives him a chance to look any better, as the Russian, sloppy as he may be, gets in your face immediately, and I can see that breaking Christensen’s resolve. However, Christensen has only been finished once and Antigulov doesn’t have much of a history outside of the first round, so a prolonged battle could favor the old Dane.
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