One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 63 is a three-round featherweight bout between Clay Guida and Robbie Peralta. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Guida is a -250 favorite (bet $250 to win $100) while Peralta is a +210 underdog (bet $100 to win $210). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Guida at -230 and Peralta at +170, and the betting public agrees with Guida being the clear favorite in this one as they have bet him up past the opening number. I like Guida to win the matchup and agree with him being favored. Here’s why. Guida (31-15) is 11-9 overall in the UFC and 2-2 as a featherweight. At 145lbs he has wins over Hatsu Hioki and Tatsuya Kawajiri and losses to Dennis Bermudez and Chad Mendes. The 33-year-old American is a grinder and most of his wins have come by him smothering his opponents on the mat and against the fence. He is very strong for 145lbs, having previously competed most of his career at 155lbs and being a title contender, having defeated the likes of Anthony Pettis and Rafael dos Anjos during his time at lightweight. Of his 31 career wins, 11 have come by decision, which demonstrates he’s able to go the distance — he is known for his cardio. He also has an underrated submission game and has 16 sub wins in his career. He’s also known for being durable, having only been knocked out once in his career. There’s no doubt Guida has taken a lot of damage and is getting up there in fight years, but he’s still an effective fighter who knows how to win, and when he’s fighting non-elite competition he’s a tough guy to beat. Peralta (18-5, 1 NC) is 4-2, 1 NC in the UFC with wins over Rony Jason, Estevan Payan, Jason Young and Mike Lullo with losses to Akira Corassani and Thiago Tavares and a No Contest against Mackens Semerzier. The 29-year-old American is a deadly striker and has accumulated 13 wins by T/KO in his career, including two in the UFC. He has very good boxing and he’s able to outstrike most of the other featherweights in the UFC on the feet. The problem with Peralta is his wrestling, specifically his takedown defence. It’s simply not good and hasn’t gotten better, which is disappointing. If he had any sort of decent takedown defence he could win fights against a lot of opponents, but now that the book is out on him and his bad TDD, wrestlers eat him up. And that’s a bad combination going up against a guy like Guida, who is a blanket. In order to earn an upset over Guida, a durable grinder, Peralta is going to have to have improved his TDD tenfold, but until we see the proof, it’s nearly impossible to go with him in this fight. This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler battle, and all things considered I believe you have to favor the grappler Guida. He has shown time and time again that his wrestling is extremely effective and now that he’s at Team Alpha Male, I expect him to go back to his roots and use his takedowns to grind Peralta out over the course of 15 minutes and win a decision, or possibly even get a submission if he’s having a really good night. I like Peralta and believe he’s an impressive striker, but his takedown defence has always been awful and it just hasn’t gotten any better over the years. Of course, if he’s made sudden changes to his TDD and keeps this fight on the feet he’s going to torch Guida, but it’s hard to see that happening. Guida is on a decline in his career so tread cautiously, but I do believe he’s going to win this bout and he could be a good candidate for parlays this weekend depending on where the betting public takes his line in the next dew days.
