Instant MMA Betting Analysis is a new feature at MMAOddsBreaker.com where betting analyst Brad Taschuk breaks down the opening odds for every fight on a given card released at Several Bookmakers by MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas besides the main and co-main events, which were previously analyzed here. Check out Brad’s thoughts on the rest of the UFC Fight Night 108 card this Saturday (April 22, 2017) in Nashville, TN.
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Ovince Saint Preux (-270) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+190)
There’s always the threat of a first-round KO when Marcos Rogerio de Lima steps in the Octagon, but both of his UFC losses have also come in the opening round. I think if Ovince St. Preux wants the victory here, he needs to drag de Lima past the first round for the first time in the UFC. He should be able to do it by using his length and keeping the Brazilian outside until the majority of the threat has subsided. After that, an easy takedown or a big shot should be all it takes to get a finishing sequence started.
John Dodson (-280) vs. Eddie Wineland (+200)
Eddie Wineland has the size and reach advantages here, but they’re not going to matter. Wineland needs to use his footwork far more than his physical tools to keep Dodson away, as Dodson’s speed can easily overcome a couple inches in height or reach. Unfortunately for Wineland, I think Dodson is even fast enough to time something and get there before his feet can get him away. We’ve seen that when Dodson lands cleanly on anyone not named John Lineker, good things do not follow for that person. I expect this one to be over relatively quickly, although there may not be a whole lot of output from Dodson prior to the finish. That would be a much scarier proposition if Wineland was a higher volume guy, but I think the quality of Dodson’s shots could even earn him a decision here rather than the stoppage.
Joe Lauzon (-125) vs. Stevie Ray (-115)
Joe Lauzon’s wrestling game is better than it often gets credit for, and Stevie Ray is Scottish. If Lauzon wants them, takedowns will be there early on. So the way I see this one going depends largely on Lauzon’s strategy. If he wants to grapple, he probably wins the first two rounds and gets a decision. If he wants to just get in and mix it up in true Joe Lauzon fashion, this could go either way. I’ll say he mixes in a bit of grappling and it sends a couple close rounds his way in a potential split decision.
Mike Perry (-185) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+145)
Mike Perry and Jake Ellenberger was a head scratcher for me for a second, until I remembered that Perry still has a granite chin and Ellenberger’s technical ability is nowhere near Alan Jouban’s. With Ellenberger not giving Perry so much to think about, the Floridian will be more willing to move forward and throw his own heavy shots. It’ll take a couple, but I envision him getting Ellenberger out of there. One tactic Ellenberger could take to potentially change that outcome is going to the body early, we saw him have success doing that against Matt Brown, and Perry wanted no part of Jouban’s body attack after a while. I still believe this is Perry’s fight, but it will be interesting to see if that dynamic comes into play.
Thales Leites (-130) vs. Sam Alvey (-110)
This could be another frustrating one for Sam Alvey backers. If he had more output, I think he beats Thales Leites very clearly. However, with the amount of clinching he might allow to take place, this is probably going to come down to a few punches a round. Luckily, I expect him to come out on the right side, as Leites is no stranger to getting lulled into slow fights. I don’t expect this to be one of the more entertaining bouts of the evening, so perhaps not the greatest choice to headline the prelims.
Brandon Moreno (-120) vs. Dustin Ortiz (-120)
I have to say I’m still not sold on Brandon Moreno. He’s looked impressive, no doubt, but I feel like his ceiling (at least for now) may have been the Louis Smolka win. The striking defense needs a lot of work (although he survived the Ryan Benoit punch that Sergio Pettis couldn’t), and I worry what happens when he faces someone who can consistently put him on his back. We’ll have one of those questions answered here, as Dustin Ortiz is the type of guy who will put you on your back and you won’t have an easy time getting up from under. I think Ortiz grinds this one out, and in the long run it could be a positive for Moreno.
Scott Holtzman (-350) vs. Michael McBride (+250)
How much of a concern is cardio for Michael McBride. If that was just a short notice issue, he’s got a very good shot against Scott Holtzman. However, he’s lost two of his three career fights that have gone past the opening round, so it could be something to watch. I don’t quite know who McBride is yet, and that could mean he out-grapples Holtzman to a decision, or gasses and gets stopped in the later rounds again. If there’s something around +300 on the board, I’ll take a shot (McBride closed +425 to Lentz) I’ll take a shot as I’m still yet to be impressed by Holtzman, but the Knoxville native is a rightful favorite based on what we actually know.
Jessica Penne (-230) vs. Danielle Taylor (+170)
Jessica Penne already didn’t enjoy getting hit (who could blame her), but that probably goes even more after her encounter with Jessica Andrade. However, the question here is whether Danielle Taylor ever hits her. Taylor’s reach is so short that it forces her to throw most of her shots from way outside and her accuracy is extremely low. She does hit with power when she does connect, but I’m just not confident she does so often enough to make Penne not want to be there. There’s also the matter of grappling, something nobody has tried to do yet against Taylor. Penne should have a big advantage there if she does get uncomfortable on the feet at any point.
Bryan Barberena (-260) vs. Joe Proctor (+180)
Joe Proctor fights so infrequently these days that it’s hard to really remember what he does well other than turn up the volume as fights go on. He’s generally able to finish the guys he should finish, but struggles with any jump in competition. I consider Bryan Barberena to be a jump in competition. He’s more than durable enough that Proctor won’t finish him, and I think he can exceed Proctor’s pace, as few fighters can match Barberena’s output across 15 minutes. We probably see a relatively competitive fight which goes the full 15 here, and I’m not expecting it to feature a ton of defense.
Alexis Davis (-215) vs. Cindy Dandois (+165)
To me, Cindy Dandois beating Megan Anderson is one of the weirder results in women’s MMA recently, and there seem to be a fair amount of them. Dandois is almost exclusively a grappler, but nothing about her ground game really stands out. I think Alexis Davis is better on the mat, a better technical wrestler (although Dandois might be able to work hard enough that Davis may accept bottom position), and has a massive striking advantage. Unfortunately Davis doesn’t have the athletic ability to really put her advantages to work here, so we’re likely to see a relatively close battle. I have to give Davis the edge because of the skill difference here, but it’s not a pick I feel good about, and definitely wouldn’t bet.
Matt Schnell (-135) vs. Hector Sandoval (-105)
The opening bout on the UFC Fight Pass prelims will be a good way to kick things off. Hector Sandoval really changed my tune on him with his last performance, while Matt Schnell should look much better against a striker who won’t be landing everything on him. I don’t have a great read on this fight, but I think if Sandoval mixes up his takedowns and is able to do some clinch work (like he did against Fredy Serrano) he takes a decision here. Again, not a confident pick though.
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