UFC 210
Date: April 8, 2017
Arena: KeyBank Center
City: Buffalo, NY
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads back to Buffalo, NY for the second time in promotional history and first time in nearly 22 years with UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson II. The stacked 13-fight card is set to kick off with four preliminary fights on UFC Fight Pass at 6:15 p.m. ET, with preliminary action continuing on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m. and the main card getting underway at 10 p.m. on Pay-Per-View. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers.
My Over/Under Totals are:
Lightweight bout: Will Brooks (-270) vs. Charles Oliveira (+230)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Both fighters are in desperate need of victory in this matchup, as Brooks is coming off a third round TKO loss to Alex Oliveira and “Do Bronx” is coming off back to back guillotine-choke submission losses to Anthony Pettis and Ricardo Lamas. He failed to make weight in the Lamas bout, which prompted his move back up to the lightweight division. I think this 155-pound contest is closer than the betting odds indicate, although I do favor Brooks to get the job done. I think there is a good chance that this fight ends inside the distance, either by Brooks finishing Oliveira with strikes or Oliveira catching Brooks in a submission. I see those are the two most likely outcomes to this bout, so needless to say, I favor a play on the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +110 here.
Gabe’s Call: Brooks by T/KO (punches, 3:11 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+110)
Light Heavyweight bout: Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs. Patrick Cummins (+105)
Gabe’s Thoughts: This one seems pretty simple; either Blachwicz puts Cummins away, or Cummins uses his wrestling to grind out an ugly decision. Those are the only two ways I see this fight going, and I favor the Pole to get the job done early. Cummins has not looked good recently, and even though he doesn’t have a lot of fight years, he may already be on a decline. He could prove me wrong and dominate Blachowicz for five rounds here, but if I’m right and he’s on the way down, Blachowicz should blast right through him for a highlight-reel victory. I do see some betting value in Blachowicz at his current asking price of -125, however, I think the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at +155 holds more.
Gabe’s Call: Blachowicz by T/KO (strikes, 0:59 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+155)