After a trip to Brazil this weekend, the Octagon will set up shop in London, England for UFC Fight Night 107 before taking some time off to catch March Madness like the rest of the sports world. The main event of the UFC Fight Pass card will essentially be the fight pass version of the light heavyweight title bout that will grace the Octagon upon its return in April. Corey “No Longer Beastin” Anderson will look to put his wrestling on display against the dangerous striking of Jimi Manuwa in a bout that was boosted into a legitimate contendership matchup by the recent gutting of the UFC’s 205-pound division. The welterweight co-main event features another style clash, as grappling whiz Gunnar Nelson faces pretty-but-gritty striker Alan Jouban. Both men hold 6-2 records in the UFC, and although Nelson has faced the higher level of competition thus far, Jouban has shown the best form of his career recently. Beyond that, the card takes a decidedly British turn. Prospects Arnold Allen and Makwan Amirkhani match up in what should be one of the more entertaining bouts of the evening while Joe Duffy (not British, I know) hopes to add a fourth first-round finish to his resume in just his fifth UFC bout. Following a No-Contest, Englishman Darren Stewart this time welcomes Francimar Barroso to his country to run back that light heavyweight bout while the card also features some of the top UK prospects in the sport with the likes of Marc Diakiese, Tom Breese, Leon Edwards and Brett Johns. Combined, those four men have a professional record of 46-4, and none of them are older than 25. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for UFC Fight Night 107 today at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Take a look… ——————– UFC Fight Night 107: Manuwa vs. Anderson MARCH 18, 2017 The O2 | London, England Main Card – (UFC Fight Pass, 5 p.m. ET) Corey Anderson -120 Jimi Manuwa -120 Over 1.5 -165 Under 1.5 +125 – Alan Jouban +220 Gunnar Nelson -300 Over 1.5 -180 Under 1.5 +140 – Marlon Vera +160 Brad Pickett -210 Over 2.5 -175 Under 2.5 +135 – Arnold Allen -110 Makwan Amirkhani -130 Over 2.5 -150 Under 2.5 +110 – ——————– Preliminary Card – (UFC Fight Pass, 1:30 p.m. ET) Reza Madadi +375 Joseph Duffy -575 Over 1.5 -150 Under 1.5 +110 – Francimar Barroso +140 Darren Stewart -180 Over 1.5 -170 Under 1.5 +130 – Daniel Omielanczuk +110 Timothy Johnson -150 Over 2.5 -130 Under 2.5 -110 – Teemu Packalen +175 Marc Diakiese -245 Over 1.5 -175 Under 1.5 +135 – Oluwale Bamgbose +160 Tom Breese -210 Over 1.5 -140 Under 1.5 +100 – Leon Edwards +135 Vicente Luque -175 Over 2.5 -140 Under 2.5 +100 – Ian Entwistle +280 Brett Johns -400 Over 1.5 +160 Under 1.5 -210 – Brad Scott -105 Scott Askham -135 Over 2.5 -180 Under 2.5 +140 – Lucie Pudilova +325 Lina Lansberg -475 Over 2.5 -300 Under 2.5 +220 – ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Just looking at the individual skills Nelson and Jouban possess, this is a fight that would seem to heavily favor the Icelandic fighter. However, Jouban has the right skills to make this a competitive fight. I expect Jouban’s takedown defense to turn this into a striking affair, where it will be his forward pressure and volume against Nelson’s accuracy and timing. I think the threat of Nelson getting the fight to the ground will be just enough to lower Jouban’s output, and that will allow Nelson the slight edge in exchanges. I don’t expect the line or public support to necessarily reflect the closeness of this fight however, and there could be some value on Jouban. I haven’t been completely sold on Amirkhani in his UFC run, and I think this could be the opportunity for me to take the other side. We still haven’t seen Amirkhani on the feet for a prolonged period of time, but I think Allen will provide that test. Whether Amirkhani passes it is another question, as Allen isn’t the cleanest striker around. However, if Mr. Finland is a big favorite in a fight I don’t feel plays to his strengths, I might be compelled to play the other side and see how he deals with Allen’s pace and pressure on the feet. I picked Stewart by TKO the first time these two fought, and while that outcome didn’t exactly hit, the bet still cashed. While it’s highly unlikely that he closes as a slight dog again this time, I expect the same result, especially with the fight moving from Brazil to England. Much like Tim Means against Alex Oliveira at Fight Night 106, this is just a case where the recent no contest takes all the value out of what I consider to be a winning bet. Johnson and Omielanczuk are two fighters who are generally durable enough to make my favorite bet a reality, and I think that will be the case here. With Omielanczuk getting stopped for the first time in his career in his last outing, the over might come at a bit of a discount, but I think it gets there in a fight where Johnson can probably get in close and outmuscle Omielanczuk to a decision. Packalen needs to get this fight to the ground to have any success, but Diakiese’s defensive wrestling and ability to patiently work his way back to his feet will prevent that from becoming a reality. On the feet, Diakiese is a far more talented and dangerous striker. I think that results in a performance much more closely resembling his UFC debut than his recent win over Frankie Perez. Bamgbose is extremely dangerous early in the fight, but I think Breese is more than capable of navigating those early waters and taking over later in the fight. In hindsight, it’s even more impressive now that Bamgbose was able to avoid being submitted by Cezar Ferreira, but I think Breese is more comfortable with his own cardio and will be more willing to pursue a finish later in the fight. I expect him to find it and get back on the winning track after his first career loss. Luque becoming such a big threat on the feet is going to make his grappling game even more dangerous, and I think he’ll resort back to it against Edwards. Luque can certainly be competitive with Edwards on the feet, but if he can get the bout to the ground he’ll have a massive advantage. I believe that his striking will allow him to score that takedown after Edwards thinks he’s committed to a fight on the feet, and that’ll get the ball rolling downhill for Luque. Entwistle facing a grinding grappler with excellent top control, cardio, and technique? Well, I guess it’s not much different than every Entwistle fight. If he doesn’t get the leg lock in the first couple minutes, it’s over for him. I’m confident that Johns can avoid the early submission threat and score a finish, which given his history might be offered at a slightly better price than you’d normally see an Entwistle opponent get. Click below to bet the fights now!
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