UFC on FUEL TV 10 Ginasio Paulo Sarasate Saturday, June 8, 2013 Light heavyweight bout: Rafael Cavalcante (-210) vs. Thiago Silva (+175) Fight Breakdown: Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante makes his long-awaited UFC debut fresh off a year-long drug suspension when he takes on veteran Thiago Silva — also fresh off a drug suspension — in the co-main event of UFC on FUEL TV 10. Cavalcante is currently a -210 betting favorite (bet $210 to win $100), while Silva is a +175 underdog (bet $100 to win $175) at Several Bookmakers. Cavalcante (11-3, 1 NC) is the former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion and will be making his UFC debut in this fight. The 32-year-old Brazilian packs a powerful wallop in his strikes and has a dangerous ground game and has finishes all 11 of his victories by either T/KO or submission, including a T/KO victory over Muhammed Lawal that won him the Strikeforce title. Cavalcante hasn’t competed in over a year due to a drug suspension after he tested positive for a banned substance but he maintains his innocence and unless the PEDs were the reason why he was running through his opponents in Strikeforce then he should absolutely wreck the overrated Silva. Silva (14-3, 2 NC) is also coming off a drug suspension as he tested positive for marijuana after his submission win over Stanislav Nedkov at UFC on FUEL TV 6. The 30-year-old Brazilian is only 1-3, 2 NC over his last six fights and actually hasn’t won since August of 2009 against Keith Jardine. Although Silva has some power and submission skills, his chin is a bit of a question mark and he’s battled numerous injuries over the last few years. Although he can win this fight against Cavalcante if he lands the right punch, it’s not likely and instead it’s much more likely he’s the one that gets punched and gets knocked out cold. Fight Prediction: I see both of these men meeting in the middle of the cage and although Silva does have some power of his own, Cavalcante is even more dangerous in the standup and I think he’s going to knock Silva’s head off and send him right out of the UFC with a first-round KO stoppage victory. Adam’s Pick: Cavalcante via KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I see Cavalcante as being very nice parlay fodder at the current moneyline at -210 but the ITD prop is half the price even though that’s how he wins the fight most of the time. I see a ton of value in the Cavalcante wins inside the distance prop and I’ll be playing it heavily at its current price tag of -110. Cavalcante ITD is one of my favorite bets on 2013.
