Tim Means vs. Danny CastilloUFC Fight Night 106: Belfort vs. Gastelum Date: March 11, 2017 Arena: Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste City: Fortaleza, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is in back in Fortaleza, Brazil for the second time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 106: Belfort vs. Gastelum. The 12-fight main card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary on UFC Fight Pass at 7:30 p.m. ET. The prelims will then continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., and the main card will follow on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available to you at 5Dimes Sportsbook. My Over/Under Totals are: Welterweight bout: Tim Means (-250) vs. Alex Oliveira (+210) Gabe’s Thoughts: Their first bout ended controversially with a No-Contest, and now they run it back in Brazil, where this time Oliveira will be enjoying a home advantage. Means appeared to be in complete control of the previous bout, which explains why he is a -250 betting favorite over the Brazilian in this rematch. I personally think this 170-pound scrap is closer than the odds indicate and believe Oliveira holds some value at his current asking price of +210. That said, I favor a play on the Total of Over 1.5 rounds here, as I think this fight hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, despite seeing the first one end so quickly. Gabe’s Call: Means by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-150) Welterweight bout: Sergio Moraes (-220) vs. Davi Ramos (+180) Gabe’s Thoughts: Ramos will be making his short-notice UFC debut, replacing an injured Max Griffin, and he will be taking on the stiffest test of his professional MMA career in the form of fellow Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Moraes. Both 170-pounders are decorated black belts in BJJ, so fans are highly anticipating this one and hoping to see it hit the mat. At the current odds, I think Ramos holds some betting value at his current underdog price of +180, however, I favor the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -165 more, despite the odds not being nearly as good. I think Ramos should be +140, whereas I think the Total of Over 2.5 rounds should be between -250 and -300. Gabe’s Call: Moraes by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-165) Click Here to Make a Donation!


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