UFC 209 Date: March 4, 2017 Arena: T-Mobile Arena City: Las Vegas, NV Heavyweight title bout: Alistair Overeem (-125) vs Mark Hunt (+115) Fight Breakdown: The UFC 209 main card will be featuring a heavyweight rematch between Alistair “The Reem” and Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt, with Overeem being a slight -125 ($125 to win $100) betting favorite and Hunt a small +115 ($100 to win $115) underdog at Several Bookmakers. Alistair “The Reem” Overeem (41-10-1 NC MMA, 6-4 UFC) last saw action at UFC 203 nearly six months ago, where he lost via first-round knockout against Stipe Miocic in his failed bit for the UFC’s heavyweight title. Having a four-fight winning streak snapped, he is back at the drawing board and ready to get back into the win column with a victory over Hunt. “The Reem” is an excellent striker who comes from a Muay Thai background and has developed a solid grappling game as well. He is always a knockout threat but also capable of simply out-pointing his opponents with his superior technical striking. He also has a very underrated grappling game, with solid fundamentals in both wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, offensively as well as defensively. The 36-year-old had a rocky start in the UFC but appears to have seriously turned things around since switching from the Blackzilians camp in Boca Raton, FL to Jackson-Wink MMA in Albuquerque, NM. Most notably, his fight IQ and conditioning have improved, benefitting from having Greg Jackson in his corner and training in high-altitude Albuquerque. I think he will have enough gas in the tank for a full three rounds against Hunt should this fight go the distance. Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt (12-10-1-1 NC MMA, 7-4-1-1 NC UFC) last saw action at UFC 200 nearly eight months ago, where he lost a unanimous decision versus Brock Lesnar, the result of which was later turned into a No-Contest due to Lesnar testing positive in a post-fight drug test. It is a big question mark as to where his head is at currently considering the lawsuit he filed against the UFC for fighting a fighter who was on drugs. Hunt is a Samoan kickboxer who was born in New Zealand and currently resides in Australia, which he proudly calls home. He is a very talented and powerful striker who throws heavy hands and kicks — as Joe Rogan puts it, “he has tree trunks for legs!” The 42-year-old’s takedown defense has improved, though it is not excellent, and his submission defense, while also improved, remains a concern. He will also be looking to avenge a previous loss to Overeem, who submitted him in their first meeting nearly a decade ago. Hunt, like in any of his bouts, will be preferring to keep things on the feet. The PRIDE veteran has solid cardio for a heavyweight. and I think he too will have enough gas in the tank for a full 15 minutes of action, should this contest hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Gabe’s Thoughts: I like Overeem in this spot, and I like him to win this fight by decision or late finish. On the feet, I think he will find success sticking and moving, but I think his key to victory in this contest will be the grappling. I see “The Reem” successfully scoring takedowns and out-wrestling Hunt. I think it is more likely he will win on the cards, and I think spending the majority of 15 minutes in top position on the mat will be the reason for that. I think Overeem holds value at his current asking price of -125, however, I think the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at -107 holds more value and is the best play for this bout. While I favor Overeem winning this fight by decision or late finish, it is possible that Hunt could score a late finish as well, which would keep us in the clear with our wager. Gabe’s Call: Overeem by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-107) 
