UFC 161: June 15, 2013 MTS Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada UFC Heavyweight Contender Roy Nelson (-260) Profile: Winner of The Ultimate Fighter Season 10, outspoken, big-bellied heavyweight Roy Nelson (19-7) may be undersized and seemingly out of shape, but he is a student of the MMA game and always exciting. His grappling credentials are never to be questioned – he is an instructor and Renzo Gracie black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with insanely heavy hands that have delivered four Knockout of the Night bonuses and a chin made of granite. A formula for MMA popularity if there ever was one, UFC president Dana White realized the 36-year-old Las Vegas resident is ratings gold and cast him as a coach opposite fellow heavyweight contender Shane Carwin in TUF 16. While Carwin was a superior coach, he got hurt before he could fight Nelson, who ended up scoring an easy first-round TKO win against replacement Matt Mitrione. Nelson followed that up with his third straight first-round knockout victory against Cheick Kongo in April. UFC Heavyweight Contender Stipe Miocic (+180) Profile: Stipe Miocic (9-1) has been impressive in winning three of his first four UFC bouts, defeating Shane del Rosario via second-round TKO at UFC 146 last May 26, Phil De Fries by first-round knockout at UFC on FUEL TV 1 last February 15 and Joey Beltran via unanimous decision at UFC 136 in his debut. The 30-year-old Croatian earned Knockout of the Night honors with the win over De Fries, and he is a former Golden Gloves boxing champion and wrestled collegiately at Cleveland State University. Miocic previously competed in the North American Allied Fight Series, going 5-0 and defeating Bobby Brents for the heavyweight title last June 4 by leg kick submission. Miocic’s first five wins were all decided by knockout in the first or second round, but he is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Stefan Struve at UFC on FUEL TV 5. Opening UFC 161 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Nelson a solid -260 favorite (bet $260 to win $100) while Miocic opened as a +180 underdog (bet $100 to win $180) at Several Bookmakers sportsbook. Nelson is slowly but surely making his way up the MMAOB MMA heavyweight rankings with knockout wins in four of his past five bouts and could eventually get a shot at the title as long as he keeps winning. He made waves recently when he said Daniel Cormier turned down the chance to fight him, which could end up happening now that Cormier said nothing could be further from the truth. But “Big Country” will have to get through Miocic first, and that will not be an easy feat. Miocic was viewed as one of the top heavyweight prospects before losing to Struve in an upset, and now he must find a way to get back on track against a veteran opponent. Nelson’s obvious strength is his KO power, but he could struggle if Miocic fights smart and tries to take him to the ground where he can utilize his wrestling skills. Seven of Nelson’s last eight wins have ended in the first round, and he has suffered six of his seven losses by decision after the judges did not think he did enough over three rounds to earn a victory. Miocic needs to stay active and outwork Nelson to beat him and not get tempted by the knockout, which could backfire and result in a second consecutive loss.
