Photo by Esther Lin/STRIKEFORCE ‘Ask Cousin Gabe’ is an article at MMAOddsBreaker.com where I answer questions from readers. If you would like to ask me a question regarding wagering, any upcoming fight cards, or MMA in general, please email it to budosophy@gmail.com and make sure to include your name and location. If you have any questions for the upcoming UFC 209 fight card, please shoot them through! “FEDOR!!! Think he gets it done? Worth betting?” -Earl, LA, CA The GOAT? I certainly think he has a great chance, though the majority are confident that the outcome of the bout will be Mitrione by T/KO. I won’t argue that they are wrong, but I think it is equally or more likely that Fedor wins, as I think he is capable of winning this fight by T/KO or submission, whereas Mitrione can only win by knockout. If the Russian comes in with a game plan, he will take this fight to the mat early and get a submission. As far as a wager is concerned, I can’t blame you for playing Fedor at slight dog odds, but I do favor the Total of Under 1.5 rounds here, because regardless of who gets his hand raised, I think the win will come in the opening round of action. “Who do you think has the best value on the Canada card? -Wes, Memphis, TN Alex Ricci (+355) – Contrary to popular opinion, I think he should be a -160 betting favorite. Aiemann Zahabi (-235) – I think he should be a -700 betting favorite. Zahabi by Submission (+440) – I think this is the most likely outcome to this bout. Travis Browne (-110) – I think he should be a -200 betting favorite. Browne by Submission (+950) – I think this is the most likely outcome to this main event bout. McMann/Mazany Under 2.5 rounds (+160) – I think this line should be at least -180. Marshman by Decision (+925) and Submission (+875) – I think he is equally likely to win by submission or decision as he is by T/KO, and the T/KO prop is at +270. Meerschaert by T/KO (+332) – I think this is the most likely outcome to this bout. I may have given you more than you bargained for, ha. I inititially intended on just saying Ricci, but I couldn’t stop myself from continuing… Cezar Ferreira (-120) – I think he should be a -230 betting favorite. “Thanks for that big payday last week! I wish I had bet the entire recommended amount, I only put up half… Still a big come-up, so I’m all smiles! Do you have another 5-teamer for me?” -Stan, Las Vegas, NV You’re welcome! I’ll do you one better, here’s a six teamer this week: Ferreira (-125) Tucker (-165) Ponzinibbio (-390) Zahabi (-245) Esparza (-275) Meerschaert (-310) 1.35u to win 11.1u If you really feel like gambling, add underdogs Marshman and Ricci to that to make it an eight teamer; and one in each for a pair of seven teamers. You’re up 10u from last week, so it can’t hurt to try! All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated.
