UFC on FOX 23: Shevchenko vs Pena Date: January 28, 2017 Arena: Pepsi Center City: Denver, CO The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Denver, CO for the sixth time in promotional historyw with UFC on FOX 23: Shevchenko vs Pena. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 4pm ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 5pm and the main card get underway at 8pm on FOX. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakers. My Over/Under Totals are: Welterweight bout: Li Jingliang (-155) vs Bobby Nash (+135) Gabe’s Thoughts: Nash is making his UFC debut in this contest, riding an impressive seven fight winning streak that includes victories over UFC welterweight Rocky Edwards and WSOF veteran Lewis Gonzalez. He will be taking on Jingliang, who is coming off a first round knockout of Anton Zafir. I expect this to be a closely contested bout in the UFC’s 155-pound division and think Jingliang should be a slight -140 betting favorite heading in, so I see no betting value on either fighter at the current odds. However, I do think this fight hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, so I do see see value in the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at a coin-flip price of -110. Regardless of who gets his hand raised in this contest, I see the fight going past the 2.5 round mark, despite it being in high altitude Denver, Colorado. Gabe’s Call: Nash by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over. 2.5 rounds (-110) 2.2u to win 2u Flyweight bout: Alexandre Pantoja (+105) vs Eric Shelton (-125) Gabe’s Thoughts: These 125-pounders will be making their Octagon debuts coming off TUF 24, where they both impressed, especially Shelton, who made it to the tournament’s semi-finals and lost a majority decision to Tim Elliott. I think this is a close fight but I give the edge to Shelton. It is a classic striker versus grappler match-up, and I see the striker finding success here. I think Shelton will be able to stuff the Brazilian’s takedown attempts, keep the fight standing and outstrike him en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Pantoja may be able to get a takedown early and win the first round, but I think Shelton will manage to keep the fight standing in the second and third rounds, largely in part due to what I think will be a cardio advantage for him. I think Shelton should be a slight -140 betting favorite here, so I don’t see value in him at the current odds, however I do think this fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision more often than not, so I like the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -185. Gabe’s Call: Shelton by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-185) 1.85u to win 1u 
