UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn Date: January 15, 2017 Arena: Talking Stick Resort Arena City: Phoenix, AZ The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Phoenix, AZ for the second time in promotional history this Sunday (January 15, 2017) with UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn. The 12-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action at 6 p.m. (ET) on Fight Pass, and prelims will continue at 8 p.m. on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my live dogs: Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon (-130) vs. Marcin Held (+110) Gabe’s Thoughts: Held made his promotional debut a couple months back against Diego Sanchez and lost the bout via unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. He now gets a second crack at a first UFC win against TUF 5 veteran Lauzon, who scored a knockout of Sanchez just half a year ago at UFC 200. According to MMA math, this should be Lauzon’s fight, but I don’t see things playing out that way. I expect Held to have improved cardio this time around and for his Octagon jitters to be out of the way. I think this fight will be largely contested on the mat, and while I believe Lauzon is a submission ace, I do think that Held is the superior submission grappler who is more capable of ending this fight by submission. Lauzon is coming off a controversial split-decision loss to Jim Miller and will be looking to get back on track with a win over the 24-year-old Polish prospect. I think Held should be slightly favored in this contest, so I like him for a pay at his current underdog price of +110. Gabe’s Call: Held by Submission (toe hold, 1:44 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Held (+110) 2u to win 2.2u Bantamweight bout: Frankie Saenz (-155) vs. Augusto Mendes (+135) Gabe’s Thoughts: There are some unanswered questions surrounding Mendes heading into this contest, and I feel like I know the answers to them. I think he can hang with Saenz on the feet and get the better of him on the mat. I see this fight hitting the mat sooner or later, where I expect it will be a matter of time until he locks up a submission to earn the tap from Saenz. Mendes lost via first-round knockout in his short-notice UFC debut against current UFC bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt, which marked the first official defeat of his professional mixed martial arts career. He will be looking to get back into the win column by picking up his first UFC victory over the 36-year-old Mendes. I think Mendes should be slightly favored heading into this contest, so I like him for a play at his current offering underdog price of +135. Gabe’s Call: Mendes by Submission (guillotine choke, 1:33 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Mendes (+135) 2u to win 2.7u All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated. 
