UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey Date: December 30, 2016 Arena: T-Mobile Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The UFC 207 fight card is stacked with 10 scheduled bouts, with preliminary action getting underway at 6:30 p.m. (ET) on UFC Fight Pass and continuing on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m. The main card will be live on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m., and all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Here are my main card plays: Bantamweight title bout: Dominick Cruz (-210) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+170) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Cruz should be a -450 betting favorite heading into this bantamweight title fight, and I see him successfully defending his 135-pound strap against undefeated Team Alpha Male product Garbrandt. I think “No Love” will find no luck against Cruz’s style, being unable to connect and do damage. I see Cruz avoiding Garbrandt’s power-shots and out-striking him for the majority of 25-minutes of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Gabe’s Call: Cruz by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cruz (-210) 8.4u to win 4u Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim (-145) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (+125) Gabe’s Thoughts: I have been going back and forth as to who my official pick is for this welterweight contest. I think this bout will come down to whether Saffiedine can find success in keeping the fight on the feet and outpointing the South Korean. If “Stun Gun” can find success in taking Saffiedine down, then the fight will be in his world. He has improved his striking and has been recording knockouts, but he also has solid fight IQ, and I expect him to employ it in this contest. I am not confident in that though, as Saffiedine is not known to be a finisher, so Kim may want to risk it and look for the knockout. That said, I think the two most likely outcomes to this 170-pound contest are Kim by Decision and Saffiedine by Decision, so the play I favor for this particular contest is the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -170, as I see this welterweight affair hitting the judges’ scorecards for a decision more often than not. Gabe’s Call: Kim by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-170) 2.55u to win 1.5u All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated.
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