After the shocking conclusion to WWE Survivor Series 2016 last month, with last minute changes that confounded both the oddsmakers and the casual viewer, we are back for TLC 2016 on the WWE Network. Unlike Survivor Series this event is a brand exclusive pay per view, so all of the featured wrestlers and featured matches are from the SmackDown Live roster. Let’s break down the odds and find out what you can expect on Sunday night. A quick disclaimer for any newcomers to the PPV previews that we do. Why do we have betting odds on a “fixed” sport where the outcome is determined by the writers and not by athletic prowess? There’s a simple answer – Vince McMahon changes his mind on a whim. It was his last minute decision to offer Bill Goldberg an extended contract for the same money that saw him go over Brock Lesnar in a quick squash, when previously Lesnar had been the heavy favorite. So as you review the odds for TLC, keep in mind that they reflect how likely a last minute change is by the writers, not by the wrestlers. It still happens though and when it does you just might cash in. To cash in on the underdog in a world title match between AJ Styles and Dean Ambrose, you’re going to need a HUGE change of mind from Vince and company. He’s +1250 on the latest odds, with Styles coming in as a huge -2750 favorite. Right now Styles is the signature star of SmackDown Live, or as he liked to say during the start of his title quest, he’s “the face that runs the place.” To pull the title off him right now without having really established a new star to usurp him as the top dog of the brand would be a mistake. With this being a “tables ladders and chairs” weapons match, anything goes, and even in the scripted WWE world that’s to the champion’s advantage. On the other hand a title change seems likely in the Women’s Title match between champion Becky Lynch (+600) and challenger Alexa Bliss (-1200). Perhaps the fact that it’s a “tables match” plays into WWE’s thinking on the booking here. They’ve booked Becky Lynch to look strong in her previous title defenses, but she doesn’t have to be pinned to lose the match or the title with this stipulation — she just has to go through a table. As long as they’ve got a good set up written into the match for Bliss to knock her off the apron and fall through an awaiting table at ringside, that’s good enough. Other TLC PPV odds of note are as follows: The Miz is a heavy favorite at -1625 to retain the IC title over Dolph Ziggler at +775 in a ladder match. Nikki Bella is a big -1850 over Carmella at +900 in a no disqualification match. That’s got nothing on Baron Corbin though who is a huge -2450 over Kalisto in a chair match (+1150). As always these previews are for entertainment purposes and if you wager please only bet what you can afford. Enjoy TLC 2016!
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