TUF 24 Finale Date: December 3, 2016 Arena: The Pearl at Palms Casino Resort City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back at The Pearl at Palms Casino and Resort in Las Vegas for The Ultimate Fighter Season 24 Finale. The 12-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm, and prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm and culminate with the main card on the same channel at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my prop plays: Demetrious Johnson (-925) vs Tim Elliott (+725) Johnson by Submission (+205) 1u to win 2.05u Simply put, I think this is the most likely outcome to this flyweight title fight, and with the champ being -925 straight up, I think the submission prop holds a lot of value at the currently offered price of +205. Joseph Benavidez (-190) vs Henry Cejudo (+170) Cejudo by T/KO (+1295) 1u to win 12.95u I slightly favor Benavidez to get his hand raised in this flyweight title eliminator but I think Cejudo is a live dog. I could see him catching Benavidez on the button and putting his lights out, and considering that is a realistic outcome in my book, I think the prop for Cejudo winning by T/KO holds great weight at it’s currently offered massive underdog price-tag of +1295. Jake Ellenberger (+205) vs Jorge Masvidal (-225) Ellenberger Inside the Distance (+386) 1u to win 3.86u Ellenberger in Round One (+725) 1u to win 7.25u Ellenberger +3.5 (-110) 5.5u to win 5u I really like Ellenberger in this fight and do believe he has a very good chance of finishing Masvidal. Should the fight hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I feel confident Ellenberger will have done enough to earn the nod and think the +3.5 is a great bet, as I don’t think Masvidal will be able to finish him or secure three rounds on the cards. Ion Cutelaba (-210) vs Jared Cannonier (+190) Cutelaba by T/KO (+150) 1u to win 1.5u I think Cutelaba makes it two wins in a row for himself inside the Octagon with a T/KO finish of Connonier in this main card contest scheduled for 205-pounds. I do believe it is the most likely outcome to the bout. Alexis Davis (+145) vs Sara McMann (-155) Davis by Submission (+550) 1u to win 5.5u This is a fight I avoided making a straight play on, however I can’t ignore the value on the Davis by Submission prop at +550, as I think it is a very realistic outcome to this women’s bantamweight affair. Kailin Curran (-120) vs Jamie Moyle (+110) Moyle by Decision (+280) 1u to win 2.8u I like Moyle in this match-up and I think she gets the job done on the judges’ scorecards in her Octagon debut. I see a good amount of value in this play, as I think it is the most likely outcome to this women’s 115-pound contest. Anthony Smith (-125) vs Elvis Mutapcic (+115) Mutapcic by Decision (+410) 1u to win 4.1u I think Mutapcic winning a decision is the most likely outcome to this 185-pound match-up, so I think this prop holds great value at the current offering price of +410. Brendan O’Reilly (+120) vs Dong Hyun Kim (-130) Kim by Decision (+284) 1u to win 2.84u I like Kim’s chances of outstriking the Australian over the course of three rounds en route to picking up his first UFC victory by way of judges decision. I do believe that Kim winning this fight on the judges’ scorecards is the most likely outcome to this lightweight contest, because while Kim will likely be trying to finish, I don’t think O’Reilly will be so easy to put away, especially now that he has made the drop down to 155-pounds.
