The third UFC on FOX Sports card slated for September 4th will apparently be airing from Brazil, and a pair of matches pitting two Brazilians in the top 10 of their respective weight classes in hard fights as Middleweights Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza and Yushin Okami face off, as well as light heavyweights Glover Teixeira and Ryan Bader will be featured. Both matches are intended to send the winner further up the ladder, as both winners could earn title shots for 2014. The Okami – ‘Jacare’ matchup pits Souza, a former Strikeforce Champion against one of the UFC’s perennial top contenders in Okami. Souza has been on a tear, ending his last three matches in the first round. He is unlikely to do that against Okami, though ‘Jacare’ is an elite grappler who has faced and beaten bigger fighters before, but Okami’s physical strength and size, combined with his defensive prowess make him very difficult to submit. Since joining the UFC back in 2006, Okami has never finished a fight in the first round, nor has he ever been finished in the first round. Okami has been stale and boring in his recent outings, and he will have to keep up the blanket of defensive boredom against ‘Jacare’. This will be a very difficult line to set, but I look for Okami to come in a slight favorite, and it has been a long time since you could get ‘Jacare’ as an underdog, so it may be worth a look if that is the case. To even be considered for a second shot at Silva, Okami should have to beat ‘Jacare’ and then be asked to avenge his loss against Tim Boetsch. For ‘Jacare’ things are more interesting, as the same scenario would apply – he should have to avenge his loss to Luke Rockhold. You may have noticed that there is camaraderie among many of the top Brazilian fighters. ‘Jacare’ though respected, sits outside of the circle of trust as a Brazilian from the North, and a potential match between him and Anderson Silva would be tension filled. ‘Likewise, ‘Jacare’ vs Chris Weidman is a more exciting match on paper than Weidman-Okami. At light heavyweight, Teixeira is the hot name, as the aggressive Brazilian has not lost a match since 2005 and is 4-0 in the UFC. Bader is a tough fighter, and he is coming off a wipe out of veteran Vladimir Matyushenko, but he is unlikely to be favored in this match, especially if the bout goes down in Brazil. Both men’s’ best win on paper is against Quinton Jackson, who though faded, took both men the full three rounds. Bader however tough, is a wrestler first and he is not going to do well in the standup with Teixeira. Then there is the fact that the show is in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Go back and look at the history of UFC main events in Brazil, and let me know how many foreigners have pulled off wins there. Ask Luke Rockhold how it went for him.
