UFC on FX 8 Arena Jaragua, Jaragua Do Sul, Brazil Saturday, May 18, 2013 Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs. John Cholish Fight Breakdown: A lightweight bout between Gleison Tibau and John Cholish takes place on the UFC on FX 8 preliminary card. Tibau is a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100), while Cholish is +170 (bet $100 to win $170) at Several Bookmakers. Tibau (26-9) has been fighting in the UFC for years and yet always seems to always find himself flying under the radar. The 29-year-old Brazilian is one of the biggest lightweights in the division as he reportedly walks around at 185 pounds and he’s used his size in his fights to pick up the majority of his wins via grinding decisions. The problem, though, is that he his style leaves him in a lot of close fights and he’s won close decisions to Evan Dunham and Khabib Nurmagomedov in the past year. Still, Tibau is also a black blet in BJJ and trains with American Top Team and he’s faced a who’s who of fighters in the UFC lightweight division and will no doubt hold the experience edge over Cholish. Although he has slick BJJ himself look for Tibau to try and keep this fighting with Cholish standing to try and outpoint his opponent on the feet and pick up yet another decision. Cholish (8-2) is coming off a decision loss to Danny Castillo at UFC on FOX 5 and hasn’t stepped into the cage in over a year, and it’s likely that ring rust will play a factor. As well, he’ll be fighting in hostile territory down in Brazil which is never a good thing. The 29-year-old American is a solid ground fighter but keep in mind he has a full-time job and trains before and after work and that can’t be a good thing going up against someone as talented as Tibau. For Cholish to win this fight he has to get it to the ground and he has to lock up the submission because if it stays standing I can’t see how he wins since he doesn’t have much in the way of striking. He may have the cardio edge, though, and that could come into play if the fight hits the third round. Fight Prediction: Tibau is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC lightweight division and I just don’t see what Cholish has to offer him. Look for Tibau to control this fight anywhere it goes, and as long as he’s careful on the ground with the BJJ purple belt Cholish, he should be able to cruise to a decision victory. Adam’s Pick: Tibau via decision (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I really like Tibau to win this fight and he should make a good parlay option, perhaps with Fabio Maldonado. The fight goes to decision prop might be worth a shot too if it’s at a reasonable price as I don’t see a finish here.
