UFC Fight Night 100: Bader vs Nogueira II Date: November 19, 2016 Arena: Ibirapuera Gymnasium City: Sao Paulo, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Sau Paolo, Brazil for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 100: Bader vs Nogueira II. The 12-fight main card will get going with UFC Fight Pass prelims at 6pm ET, directly following the preceding UFC Fight Night 99 broadcast from Belfast. Preliminary action will then continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7pm and culminating with the main card on the same channel at 9pm. If interested in wagering on this parlay, or any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are currently made available at Several Bookmakers. Here is my parlay: Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan “Darth” Bader (-350) vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+290) Gabe’s Thoughts: At this point in their careers, I believe Bader is the superior mixed martial artist of the two, which was pretty much the case when they first squared off six years ago. I think Bader can win more impressively this time around and could see him stopping Nogueira in brutal fashion, which would make it back-to-back finishes for him, as he is coming off a vicious flying knee knockout of Ilir Latifi. This is undoubtedly Bader’s fight to lose and I don’t see him dropping this one. It is also worth noting that this is the final fight on his UFC contract and he will be a free agent after this one. I expect him to come out and deliver, ultimately getting his hand raised. If he fails to find a finish, I think he will take all five rounds on the judges’ scorecards for a unanimous 50-45 nod. 10-8 rounds would not be out of the question, either, especially if he employs his wrestling and does indeed take the fight into deep waters. I think Bader should be a -450 betting favorite heading into this 205-pound rematch, so I think he holds value at his current offering price of -350. Gabe’s Call: Bader by T/KO (strikes, 2:22 round 1) Heavyweight bout: Luis Henrique (-235) vs Christian Colombo (+195) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Henrique should be a -350 betting favorite heading into this heavyweight contest, so I think he holds value at his current offering price of -235. I think he puts Colombo on his back and likely finds a T/KO stoppage, but if he does not find the finish, I think he will outgrapple and outwork Colombo for the unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. On the feet, I think he can get the better of Colombo there, as well. I see this as being Henrique’s fight to lose and I think he gets the job done, likely in impressive fashion. Gabe’s Call: Henrique by T/KO (punches, 1:37 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Bader (-350) and Henrique (-235) at -121 for 4.15u to win 3.45u
