UFC Fight Night 100: Bader vs Nogueira II Date: November 19, 2016 Arena: Ibirapuera Gymnasium City: Sao Paulo, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Sau Paolo, Brazil for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 100: Bader vs Nogueira II. The 12-fight main card will get going with UFC Fight Pass prelims at 6pm ET, directly following the preceding UFC Fight Night 99 broadcast from Belfast. Preliminary action will then continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7pm and culminating with the main card on the same channel at 9pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. My Over/Under Totals are: Welterweight bout: Kamaru Usman (-200) vs Warlley Alves (+170) Gabe’s Thoughts: I see the majority of this bout taking place on the mat, where I think Usman will find success in outwrestling Alves while succesfully defending his submission attempts. The guillotine is the main weapon to watch out for and I think Usman will be fully prepared for it. I think this is Usman’s fight to lose but I could see Alves making it close enough to steal an undeserving decision on home soil, as he has done previously in a bout against Alan Jouban. For that reason, I favor the Total of Over 2.5 rounds here at -235 as the safer option to Usman at -200, as I think he gets the job done on the judges’ scorecards against Alves much more often than not. Gabe’s Call: Usman by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-235) 4.7u to win 2u Light Heavyweight bout: Francimar Barroso (-150) vs Darren Stewart (+130) Gabe’s Thoughts: There are many question marks surrounding Stewart heading into his UFC debut for me to confidently take a shot on him as the underdog, especially considering the fact that he is traveling to Brazil to take on a Brazilian for the match-up. I think this is more or less a coin-flip fight, and at +130, I can’t blame anybody for taking a stab on Stewart, however I personally can’t bite. I slightly lean towards the Brazilian here to pick up the win on home soil but won’t be making a play on him, either. While I do not see any betting value in either fighter for this contest, I do think the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at -160 is worth a play, as I see this bout playing out for more than seven and a half minutes more often than not. Gabe’s Call: Barroso by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-160) 3.2u to win 2u
