‘Ask Gabe’ is a new article at MMA Oddsbreaker where I answer questions from readers. If you would like to ask me a question, regarding wagering, UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey, or MMA in general, please email it to budosophy@gmail.com and make sure to include your name and location.
“Hi Gabriel, Appreciate all your insights/articles, and thanks for taking the time to read my email. I will be in attendance with two buddies this Saturday for my first ever Live UFC event, needless to say I’m super pumped regardless of the card. But, I am fairly interested in this card, especially the main and co-main events. Thus, I have two questions and I’ll be gracious if you even touched on only one. 1) Van Zant/Waterson : Do you see this fight going the distance, and if so would you (like me) not be shocked to see favorable scorecards leaning the direction of the cute, marketable blonde? 2) Northcutt/Gall : Is there enough information on these two to warrant a wagering position? I like Gall, and seeing -140 looks fair but is this merely based on clout? Again, as with the main event I am VERY skeptical of the UFC’s judging if/when this fight goes the distance. It is clear the “marketable blonde” is again present in this bout, and I can’t help but feel this argument belongs in the discussion when considering pulling the trigger on a wager. Hate to come off as the “conspiracy” guy, but it is clear the UFC promotion machine wants Van Zant and Northcutt at the helm. Unless these fights are inside the distance or very convincing victories if they go the distance, I really think the scorecards will lean the blondes’ way.” -Mike, San Francisco, CA
Hey, Mike, thanks for writing! I will be at the fights in Sacramento, myself. First time in the city. To answer your first question; yes, I do favor the VanZant versus Waterson fight to go the distance, however I think both fighters will have a chance or two to end the fight. Waterson will likely threaten with submission attempts, and I favor VanZant to power out of them, being the bigger and stronger strawweight of the two. Waterson is also coming off a long layoff and PVZ puts on a high pace, so she could fade over the course of 25-minutes of fast-paced action and get finished herself. If this fight does indeed hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision, yes, I would favor the blonde, but not for reasons of physical appearance. I would favor her to take the nod because she has the home advantage and I believe she will be the better fighter over the course of five rounds. As for Northcutt/Gall, that all has to do with how you project Mickey Gall. From what I have seen of him and heard about him from people who have trained with him, he is very talented and the sky is the limit. The same could be said for Sage Northcutt, however Sage has shown that he does not have the same desire as Gall. There are rumors of him not training hard in the gym. I actually do like Gall in this fight and I do favor finish, but if it does reach the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I think Gall will have done enough to earn a clear cut nod, so I don’t see the fight going to the marketable blonde. Especially in this case, as both fighters are very marketable. In fact, I think the UFC is pushing more for a Gall win, to capitalize off his CM Punk popularity. They may even be a little sour on Northcutt following the head-scratching loss to Bryan Barberena and his narrow decision win over Enrique Marin.
“You predicted Moontasri would win his fight by T/KO. Would you recommend a prop bet on Moontasri by T/KO?” -V, Los Angeles, CA
Looking at the line now at +290, I’m going to have to say no. I don’t think that’s a bad line at all, because I do favor him to by win T/KO slightly more than on the scorecards. However, the Decision prop is at +392 and I think that line holds more value. I got it at +456, but I think +392 is still good and the best prop play to make on this fight. I expect James Moontasri to be the superior striker and land clean shots, however Morono is tough and durable so it would not surprise me to see him eat shots en route to a unanimous decision defeat.
“Hey! What is your favorite match-up this weekend?” -Eddie, Portland, OR
Alan Jouban versus Mike Perry. It is the only main card fight to not be on the poster or not be part of the UFC Embedded series, and I believe the UFC really dropped the ball there. There’s some beef between these two exciting strikers and I think the UFC should have done a better job promoting this fight. If it lasts more than a couple minutes, I think it will be in contention for the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus. This should be a very fun scrap and definitely the kind you don’t want to blink during.
“Hey Gabe. I wanted to ask for your opinion about my parlay: waterson/gall/jouban?” -Sam Gold, Finland
I do not like it. Personally, I am on PVZ and Gall and will be avoiding betting the Jouban/Perry fight. Well, that may not be entirely true, as I am currently eyeing and considering a prop play on that welterweight scrap. If you really like all three of those fighters to win and feel like gambling, sure, you can take a small stab at it, but it would be wise to play them straight, as well. All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated. 