Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham - UFC on FX 8 Statistical Analysis and PickUFC on FX 8: Rockhold vs Belfort Jaragua do Sol, Brazil Saturday, May 18, 2013 Lightweight Fight: Evan Dunham vs. Rafael Dos Anjos Big Picture: #10 ranked Rafael dos Anjos looks to leverage a home field advantage in Brazil and extend a three-fight win streak to cement his position in the UFC top 10. But UFC veteran Evan Dunham is 7-3 in the UFC, continuing his own slow rise to contention while amassing Fight of the Night bonuses. The current line at 5Dimes Sportsbook gives the advantage to the Brazilian at -190, with Dunham as the underdog at +165. Given how close the matchup is, and how much quantified fight data exists on these two fighters, it’s worth looking into the performance stats to see how these two really matchup. Summary Stats: Fight Prediction: The stats reveal relatively evenly matched fighters, but with a number of critical performance metrics lining up in the underdog’s favor. In lighter weight classes the pace of activity is very important. Dunham has been putting up big striking numbers on his feet, and has done so with much better accuracy than his opponent. This means he should be winning the exchanges, even if the probabilities are lower for a knockout. Lightweights can and do fight everywhere. But we see good reasons for this one to stay standing, and that gives Dunham an advantage to win rounds and a decision. Doing so means overcoming the Brazilian home-field advantage, which he can do by ensuring his striking is much cleaner than his opponent, and thus making it easier on the judges to score in his favor. Reed’s Pick: Dunham by Decision (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: I like a small underdog play on Dunham, or include him in a round robin.
Tags: ufc odds, ufc, ufc betting, ufc preview, ufc picks, Evan Dunham, ufc on fx 8, rafael dos anjos, ufc on fx 8 betting, ufc on fx 8 picks, ufc on fx 8 preview, UFC Stats & Analytics with Reed Kuhn
About the Author
Dropping science in the cage with UFC statistics & analytics. Quantifying underlying drivers of the fight game, and ending barroom disputes everywhere.
More articles from this author
- The Strikeforce Effect: Are We Underestimating Crossover Fighters? - Part 1
- Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Silva - UFC 160 Statistical Analysis and Pick
- UFC 159: Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo - Statistical Fight Picks With Reed Kuhn
- UFC 159: Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen – Statistical Fight Picks With Reed Kuhn
- The Strikeforce Effect: Part 2