Michael JohnsonUFC 205 Date: November 12, 2016 Arena: Madison Square Garden City: New York City, NY The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to New York City for the first time in both promotional and mixed martial arts history for UFC 205. The stacked 13-fight card will get going with preliminary card action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. (ET). Preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., leading into the Pay-Per-View main card at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook. My Over/Under Totals are: Lightweight bout: Khabib Nurmagomedov (-290) vs. Michael Johnson (+210) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the most likely outcome to this 155-pound contest is Nurmagomedov winning on the judges’ scorecards following three rounds of action. I see his superior wrestling being the difference in the matchup. Johnson has excellent and much-improved takedown defense, but Nurmagomedov is one of the best takedown artists in all of mixed martial arts, and I think he will at least be able to keep Johnson on his back long enough to earn a nod. On the feet, this is indeed Johnson’s fight to lose, I just don’t think he will have success in keeping the fight there for the majority of two out of three rounds. I would not be surprised to see him do so and walk away with a decision, but I think his most likely route to victory is to catch Nurmagodov cold and end the fight with a T/KO. I think Nurmagomedov should be a -250 betting favorite heading into this contest, so I don’t see any value in him at his current asking price of -290. Though it is worth noting that if not for his lack of Octagon time over the past two years, I woud have said he should be at least -300, possibly -350 or -400. I think the value here is with the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -145, as I believe Nurmagomedov wins this fight on the cards much more often than he finishes, and Johnson has a chance at winning a decision as well if he can find success keeping the fight standing for the majority of two out of three rounds. Gabe’s Call: Nurmagomedov by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-145) 2.9u to win 2u Middleweight bout: Rashad Evans (+205) vs. Tim Kennedy (-245) Gabe’s Thoughts: I’m just going to come out and say it: I think Evans’ chin is shot. I don’t think he can get through the opening stanza without getting clipped and falling asleep. The drop to 185 pounds will not help his chin at all. I think Kennedy should be a -250 betting favorite here, so I am in complete agreement with the current betting odds. That means I see no value in Kennedy for a wager, however, I do like the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +135. I think both fighters are very capable of ending this fight, and to again agree with the current odds, I believe Kennedy is the much more likely party to end the dance. Gabe’s Call: Kennedy by T/KO (punch, 3:30 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+135) 2u to win 2.7u Editor’s Note: The Evans-Kennedy fight has been cancelled.


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