UFC on FX 8 is only six days away, and with fight week coming upon us it’s time to take a look at the card from a betting perspective. There has only been lines released for the top three fights on the bill so far — the main event between Vitor Belfort and Luke Rockhold, the co-main event between Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Chris Camozzi, and the superb lightweight scrap between Rafael Dos Anjos and Evan Dunham — but expect the lines for the card’s remaining 10 fights to be released in the next few days. But in the meantime we do have a number of props that are available now that we can take a look at early in order to try and dissect some value. Here are 10 UFC on FX 8 prop bets (and totals) to keep an eye on, with all betting lines courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook. 1. Belfort by T/KO (+160) Belfort’s main path to victory over Rockhold is a win via T/KO, and the prop for him to win by such fashion pays out a healthy +160, which is 60 cents higher than the regular money line on Belfort (+100). So if you want to make a prop play on Belfort this is the one to target, although you should also consider the Belfort wins inside distance prop if you believe he can win by submission, as that one pays out at +150. 2. Belfort Wins In Round 1 (+325) Most of Belfort’s finishes have come in the first round so +325 is definitely a tempting bet to make. It’s likely that the hometown-hero Belfort will come out very agressive and since Rockhold isn’t afraid to stand and strike with his opponents it’s possible Belfort could finish him with one of his trademark finishes early. And if you think that’s the case, then +325 isn’t a bad bet to make at all. 3. Belfort Wins In Round 2 (+675) Another interesting prop is Belfort wins in round 2, which pays out a very healthy +675. Belfort’s last fight against Michael Bisping at UFC on FX 7 ended in the second round so it’s definitely possible that he could win the fight with Rockhold in the second if he spends the first round trying to figure his opponent out. 4. Rockhold Wins Inside Distance (+226) Although many lean Rockhold by decision, I actually think if he wins this fight he does so in one of the later rounds by stoppage since Belfort is likely to wear down the longer the fight goes. And if that’s the case, I like Rockhold to win inside the distance at +226 as a sharp bet. 5. Rockhold by Submission (+550) If Rockhold is to stop Belfort I believe it will likely come via submission, and that pays out at +550. Although I am on Belfort in this fight, I have to admit that this is a prop I may target as a possible hedge since I do believe Rockhold’s main path to victory is via tap out. 6. Rockhold Wins By 5-Round Decision (+273) Many of you will like the Rockhold wins by five-round decision bet, which pays +273. That’s a huge increase in the regular money line on Rockhold (+130) and if you believe that Rockhold’s gameplan is to use leg kicks and range to outpoint Belfort over five rounds, then this prop offers tremendous value. 7. Anjos/Dunham Goes 3-Round Distance (-190) The fight between Dos Anjos and Dunham is as close as it gets and I don’t have a pick yet but one thing is likely and that’s that the fight goes the three-round distance. Both guys definitely have finishing ability but I believe both men will show each other a lot of respect in this fight and that it’s likely to remain a competitive kickboxing match for three rounds, making this an intriguing bet, perhaps as part of a small parlay. 8. Anjos Wins By 3-Round Decision (-145) If Dos Anjos wins this fight it’s likely to come via three-round decision, and that prop pays out -145. For me personally this is too much juice to lay on a competitive fight that I could see ending in a lot of different manners so I would personally pass. But if you’re on the Dos Anjos hype train keep an eye on this one, particularly if it drops. 9. Dunham Wins By 3-Round Decision (+260) If Dunham wins this fight it will likely be via three-round decision (although I could see him getting a submission), and the prop on that pays out a whopping +260. To me there’s a lot of value here so I would recommend taking a stab at it before the line drops as this fight against Dos Anjos will be highly competitive and will likely come down to the judges’ scorecards. 10. Souza/Camozzi UNDER 1.5 rounds (+100) And finally a total to consider is Souza/Camozzi UNDER 1.5 rounds, which pays out EVEN money. I wrote an article the other day in which I said targeting the OVER 1.5 rounds total at +100 was interesting, but now that the lines have flipped I think the value might be on the UNDER because this fight is a mismatch and “Jacare” should win it quickly but if Camozzi does manage to pull off the upset it’s likely to come early after he rocks “Jacare” with strikes so the UNDER is something to consider here. Keep checking back to MMAoddsbreaker.com as we’ll have tons of betting coverage for UFC on FX 8 all week long.
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