The opening betting line for the upcoming middleweight fight at UFC on FX 8 between former Strikeforce middleweight champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Chris Camozzi was yesterday released to the public at 5Dimes Sportsbook, with “Jacare” opening up at a robust -675 (bet $675 to win $100) and the comeback on the underdog Camozzi a whopping +425 (bet $100 to win $425). Everyone already knew that “Jacare” was going to open up as the favorite but the question was just how much of a favorite. At first glance -675 may seem steep but when you put it into perspective, it really does seem fair. As a -675 betting favorite the odds are implying that “Jacare” is going to win this fight 87 percent of the time. Conversely, as a +425 underdog the odds are implying that Camozzi is going to win this fight only 19 percent of the time. I don’t know about you guys, but that seems about right to me because this is a fight “Jacare” should win the majority of the time. “Jacare” has the advantages in most areas in this fight. He is by far the better grappler, he has more experience against better fighters, he’ll be fighting in Brazil, he’s making his UFC debut and will there be extra motivated to show how good he is, and he might even be the better striker. As for Camozzi’s advantages I would argue that he is tougher and has a better chin than “Jacare” and he is also younger. But that’s about it, which is why he’s such a sizeable underdog. Even though I do believe that Camozzi has improved, I still can’t play him in this fight. “Jacare” is one of the best middleweight fighters in the world and he’s a big favorite for a reason, and that’s because this is his fight to lose. I do not recommend a bet on Camozzi, but at -675, I don’t recommend a straight bet on “Souza” either, although I do believe he’ll be parlay fodder to pair up with some of the other likely big favorites on the UFC on FX 8 card such as Yuri Alcantara and Fabio Maldonado. The betting line for the total minutes in this fight is also available. The total is set at 1.5 rounds (or seven and a half minutes) and the OVER pays out +100, while the UNDER is -140. In Souza’s fights in Strikeforce, he fought OVER 1.5 rounds in five fights fights and fought UNDER 1.5 rounds in three fights. His current trend is a 2-0 streak UNDER 1.5 rounds, and he is 5-5 UNDER 1.5 rounds in his last 10 fights overall. In Camozzi’s official UFC fights, plus one fight in the TUF house, he has fought OVER 1.5 rounds in eight fights and UNDER 1.5 rounds in just one fight. His current trend is a 5-0 streak OVER 1.5 rounds during his last five bouts, and 9-1 OVER his last 10 fights overall (including non-UFC fights). The total is tricky. Before the line was released my gut said “Jacare” UNDER 1.5 rounds but after doing more research I like the OVER 1.5 rounds more, especially since it’s paying even money. Camozzi is a very tough fighter and isn’t awful on the ground, so it’s possible he is able to defend Souza’s attacks on the ground for seven and a half minutes which does make the OVER attractive. But it’s also possible that “Jacare” takes him down and submits him in the first round much like Kyle Noke did to Camozzi at UFC 127. If that fight with Noke never happened I would bet on this fight going OVER for sure but because Camozzi has lost by a first-round rear naked choke before — one of Souza’s specialties — I have to pass on it for now. However, if the OVER reaches the +130 range, I may have to take a stab at it. The props for this fight haven’t been released yet but the one prop I will be targeting for a bet is Souza via submission or Souza inside the distance, which ever pays better. If Souza inside the distance is under -200, I would make that bet, and if Souza by submission is -150 or lower that’s another I would recommend playing because I believe a submission is his likely path to victory. As for Camozzi, no props that I can think of will be attractive, so if you are one of the few who do favor him in this bout just play him at the moneyline. Kudos to Camozzi for stepping up on short notice to face “Jacare” because not many other fighters would but this fight is very similar in my mind to Darren Elkins vs. Chad Mendes at UFC on FOX 7 and we all saw how that turned out.
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