Big Marley’s UFC 248 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $200,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $50k. I will probably throw 20-50 in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups. 

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Weili Zhang – $8,900

I think Zhang is a lock in cash games this week at $8.9k. She has 4 people priced above her and she could outscore them all. She also has the highest floor on the slate IMO. She lands over 6 significant strikes per minute and she should see 25-minutes here. Joanna ITD is +825 so I would be surprised to see a finish from her but even in a loss we could see Zhang score 60+ DK points. In a win, she likely scores close to 100 or more. If you want to fade Zhang, do it in GPPs but I think she should be in everyone’s cash lineup this week. 

GPP play of the week – Jamall Emmers $8,500

Jamall Emmers has a big edge in this fight if he uses his wrestling. Takedowns score on DraftKings and I think Emmers has 10+ takedown upside in this fight if it goes to a decision, and he has finishing upside as well. At $8.5k, I think he could break the slate by scoring 100+ in this matchup and if he can outscore the $9k range then he will be a lock for the $50k lineup. It is hard to trust that he will look to wrestle, but that is his best path to victory here and if he does it, we want him on DraftKings. 

Underdog play of the week – Drakkar Klose – $7,500

This is a week we want to pay up for at least one of the top priced fighters and in order to do that we need some salary relief. Klose is a way to get that and he is live to win this fight. If he can keep this fight standing, he could win a close decision or even knock Dariush out. At $7.5k, any win from him could do it and he is only +152 on the betting line. He is my favorite non-title fighter to target under $7.8k this week because of how cheap he is. 

Fade of the week – Emily Whitmire $8,100

I don’t see me having any lineups this week with Whitmire. I don’t see her having any big edge where this fight goes, and I doubt she scores well unless she can get a finish. Her ITD line is only +415 so that is not a number I like to target. She is my least favorite option $7k and up and I will still probably have zero of her if I make 50+ lineups this week. If she wins a decision, I think she would probably score 60-70 DK points and I don’t think that will help us win $50k. 

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 115-87 for +244.16u (+$24,416) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/