Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+ 27 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Virginia. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $25k. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups. 

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Felicia Spencer – $9,400

Spencer is the “safest” win on the card this week with her -800 betting line. She is also -210 ITD with a -115 wins in round 1 prop. I think she will be chalk but this is a great matchup for her to get a submission and she is too good to pass up in cash games. I think this, and the main event is where we should start our cash game lineups this week and I like Spencer to top 100-points this weekend. 

GPP play of the week – Luis Pena $9,200

I expect a ton of ownership to go to Spencer and Dawson this week and that should leave Pena underowned at $9.2k. He is fighting at Lightweight against a guy who has fought at 135 and 145 and I think he will have a big edge on the ground here if he wants to take it there. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him score over 100 DK points here and I think he will be less than half the ownership of both fighters priced above him. That is why he is the GPP play of the week for me. 

Underdog play of the week – Sean Brady – $7,600

Brady is one of my favorite underdogs this week and I like the line value we are getting on him at even odds but $1k less than Naurdiev. I like his price tag at $7.6k and I think if he wins he will get more than 10x with upside of close to 100. He did have 109.5 in a decision win for his UFC debut, so I like that output from him and I could see him having some success with takedowns here. I doubt we see the 109.5 we did in his last fight in this matchup, but I think he has a shot for the optimal lineup if he can pull out the win. I do expect him to be chalky this week though so if you want to fade for ownership reasons then I get that. 

Fade of the week – Megan Anderson $9,100

There is not much film on Norma Dumont but at $9.1k I still won’t have much Anderson this week. I will still have a bit of Anderson in my 40-50 total lineups but if I was making 10 or less she would be an easy fade for me. I like all the other $9k fighters more than Anderson this week and I doubt we see her go for any takedowns in this fight. If that is the case, we are relying on significant strikes and a win bonus for her to score well and at $9.1k I want a minimum of 91 DK points. I don’t think that is very likely unless she gets a 1st or 2nd round finish and I would rather target the grapplers if I am paying that much. 

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 112-85 for +241.11u (+$24,411) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/ 

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