Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN 4 Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

 

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

 

Scoring

Moves
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

 

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

 

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card on big ESPN. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k+ goes to 1st place with a total of $135k being paid out. They are also starting the qualifier tournament, the Knockout Kings, where we have 100 qualifiers competing for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualified. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I have 2 shots at the Q so I will probably go a bit lighter overall and focus on getting 2 lineups that can finish in the top half, so I can move onto round 2. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.  

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:


Cash Game play of the week –
Rafael Dos Anjos – $7,900

RDA is going to be a lock for my cash game this week because this is a 5-round fight, he is the underdog, and I think he has a solid floor in this matchup. I also like stacking him and Edwards together in my cash lineup, but RDA is the lock for me and Edwards would just guarantee me the win and 100+ points. I am not confident RDA gets the win here, but he is the cheaper guy and that is why I picked him over Edwards as my cash game play of the week.


GPP play of the week –
Walt Harris – $8,700

The line for this fight to end ITD is currently -610 and Harris wins in round 1 is +140. This is one of the best GPP fights on the board and if Harris wins there is a good chance he wins by KO. If he wins by KO in round 1 then that is going to be at least 100 DK points and at his $8.7k salary I think that would put him on the winning $25k lineup. I like Oleinik in this fight as well but I ended up with more Harris then I planned on this week so that is why I went with him here. 


Underdog play of the week –
Steven Peterson – $7,400

On DraftKings, Peterson is $1,400 cheaper than Caceres. On the betting line, Peterson is +110 and Caceres is -120. That makes Peterson my favorite underdog of the week and I think he can win this fight on the feet or the ground. I like him in punching range on the feet and I think he will be the one going for takedowns in this spot. I think as long as he avoids head kicks and submissions then he is going to get the upset win here. That value is too good for me to pass up on DraftKings though and that is why he is my dog of the week. 


Fade of the week –
Alex Caceres $8,800

At $8.8k I have a hard time seeing Caceres end up on the optimal lineup with all the potential high scores on this card. I will have zero lineups with Caceres this week and I think the only way he really scores high enough to pay off his salary is by getting a KO or an early submission. I don’t want to rely on him getting that and now with the odds value on Peterson it makes me want to play him even less. The only reason to use Caceres here in my opinion would be as a low owned punt because I don’t expect him to have more than 10% ownership this weekend.  

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 88-54 for +274.99u (+$27,499) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


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