UFC on ESPN+ 28 takes place Saturday, March 14 at Ginásio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the betting odds for the full card, and here they are.
UFC on ESPN+ 28 Opening Odds
Charles Oliveira -140
Kevin Lee +100
Gilbert Burns -150
Demian Maia +110
Renato Moicano -325
Damir Hadzovic +250
Johnny Walker -195
Nikita Krylov +155
Francisco Trinaldo -200
John Makdessi +160
Jussier Formiga -185
Brandon Moreno +145
Amanda Ribas -325
Randa Markos +250
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -175
Aleksei Kunchenko +135
Enrique Barzola -145
Rani Yahya +115
Mayra Bueno Silva -200
Maryna Moroz +160
Bruno Silva -145
David Dvorak +115
Veronica Macedo -160
Bea Malecki +130
And here are my initial thoughts on the UFC on ESPN+ 28 Opening Odds:
- The main event is a fun lightweight bout between two of the top-15 ranked fighters in the division in Lee and Oliveira. Lee is coming off of a ridiculous head kick KO win over Gregor Gillespie that snapped a two-fight losing skid. He’s struggled with consistency lately, but the win over Gillespie showed how dangerous Lee is. Speaking of dangerous, Oliveira is riding a six-fight win streak at the moment with all of his wins coming by stoppage. We all know he has a legendary submission game, but he’s improved his striking and is coming off of back-to-back knockout wins in his last two fights. Oliveira has looked incredible lately, but he’s still a guy who has had issues with durability throughout his career. After Lee’s last performance, it’s hard not to favor him here, and it’s surprising to see him open as an underdog.
- The same can be said for the co-main event. As good as Burns has looked lately with a four-fight win streak, he’s taking on a big step up in competition against Maia, who is on a three-fight win streak himself. Maia has fought and defeated superior competition to Burns, and while he is one of the oldest fighters on the UFC roster at age 42, he’s still looking in top form. Burns is great, but Maia at plus money could present a good value opportunity on a dog.
- The Walker vs. Krylov fight should be a lot of fun and will likely result in someone being finished. Walker was on an eight-fight win streak before surprisingly getting knocked out by Corey Anderson in his last fight. He’s made several changes in his training since then, heading up to Tristar Gym for this camp, and those changes should help him here against Krylov. While Krylov has looked pretty good since returning to the UFC, he’s still a guy who has had durability issues throughout his career and Walker is someone who finishes fights. This looks like a matchup the UFC booked with the intention of getting Walker back in the win column.
- I’m also intrigued by the flyweight bout between Formiga and Moreno. The winner of this fight could very well get a title shot later this year, so they both need a win here. Formiga has proven throughout the years he’s an elite flyweight but hasn’t been able to reach the top. As for Moreno, he’s closing on a title shot himself. Personally I view this as a close, Pick ’em type of fight and at plus money I do see some value here on the underdog.
