Dana White’s Contender Series takes place Tuesday, August 6 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the betting odds for the full card, and here they are.
Dana White’s Contender Series 23 Opening Odds
Harvey Park -350
Omar Morales +285
Marilia Santos -230
Lucrezia Ria +195
Herbert Burns -400
Darrick Minner +330
Taylor Johnson -250
Andre Muniz +210
Dwight Joseph -110
Jay Perrin -110
And here are my initial thoughts on the Dana White’s Contender Series 23 Opening Odds:
- The main event is a lightweight bout between Park (12-2) and Morales (7-0). The 33-year-old Park is the LFA lightweight champion and is currently riding a three-fight win streak since losing to UFC lightweight Austin Hubbard in 2018. The majority of his wins have come by stoppage, and his overall level of opposition has been solid. The 33-year-old Morales is unbeaten and last competed for Bellator in 2018. However, he has fought less than once per year since starting his pro career in 2011 and his level of opposition has been pretty mediocre. Although I feel like the opening odds are a bit wide here, I do lean towards Park winning due to his experience.
- Next up are the women’s flyweights as Santos (10-2) takes on Ria (7-2). The 26-year-old Santos is riding a two-fight winning streak since suffering a knockout loss to top UFC strawweight contender Weili Zhang in China in 2017. The 27-year-old Ria has won five straight fights. She fought current UFC flyweight Mara Romero Borella back in 2015 and lost. Otherwise her opposition is mostly unknown. It could be a close fight as many women’s 125lbs fights are, but I lean towards Santos as she’s fought better competition during her career so far.
- It’s then time for the featherweights as Burns (8-2) takes on Minner (22-9). The 31-year-old Burns is the brother of Gilbert and is coming off of a two-fight win streak in Titan FC. Prior to his stint in Titan, Burns had a mostly successful run in ONE Championship with a 5-2 overall record there while fighting a solid level of opposition. The 29-year-old Minner has fought all over the American regional scene for the past decade. He has fought a number of UFC fighters including a knockout win over Clay Collard in his last fight. He is mostly known for his offensive submission game and it’s quite good, however he’s also been tapped a number of times. Unfortunately for Minner he’s taking on a submission ace in Burns. Based on the stylistic matchup, Burns is the clear favorite to win this fight and the odds opened up accordingly. He should get a finish here.
- It’s then a middleweight fight between Muniz (17-4) and Johnson (5-0). The 29-year-old Muniz has won three straight fights including a decision win on the Brazilian Contender Series last summer. He has plenty of experience fighting on the Brazilian regional circuit, with his biggest win being a 2014 decision over WEC veteran Paulo Filho. The 28-year-old Johnson is unbeaten as a pro since making his debut in 2016, with the majority of his wins coming in LFA. Since Johnson is an unbeaten prospect it’s not surprising to see him favored, however I believe Muniz’ experience advantage could help him here.
- And finally, the bantamweights go at it as Perrin (8-3) takes on Joseph (9-1). The 26-year-old Perrin is riding a five-fight win streak while fighting mainly for Cage Titans and also Bellator. The 28-year-old Joseph is on a six-fight win streak with the majority of his wins coming by way of stoppage. The odds for this one opened as a Pick ’em and that seems about right considering both guys are on long win streaks. However, I think Perrin has fought better competition and would favor him slightly.
