UFC Fight Night 149 takes place April 20, 2019 at Yubileyny Sports Palace in St. Petersburg, Russia. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the betting odds for the full card, and here they are.
UFC Fight Night 149 Opening Odds
Alistair Overeem -245
Aleksei Oleinik +175
Islam Makhachev -475
Arman Tsarukyan +325
Sergei Pavlovich -300
Marcelo Golm +220
Ivan Shtyrkov -185
Devin Clark +145
Antonina Shevchenko -385
Roxanne Modafferi +265
Krzysztof Jotko -130
Alen Amedovski -110
Movsar Evloev -305
Seung Woo Choi +225
Sultan Aliev -130
Keita Nakamura -110
Marcin Tybura -185
Shamil Abdurakhimov +145
Michal Oleksiejczuk -170
Gadzhimurad Antigulov +130
Magomed Mustafaev -180
Rafael Fiziev +140
Alexander Yakovlev -130
Alex Da Silva -110
And here are my initial thoughts on the UFC Fight Night 149 Opening Odds:
- In the main event, Overeem was originally set to fight Alexander Volkov and he was an underdog when that line came out. But due to an injury to Volkov, fellow Russian Aleksei Oleinik stepped into face Overeem on short notice. He deserves a big fight after submitting Mark Hunt his last time out, but as the line suggests, this is a tough matchup for Oleinik. As good as he is on the ground, Overeem has impressive grappling himself and is very difficult to submit. Although Overeem’s chin is shaky, he is a tremendous striker and should have a big advantage standing. If Oleinik can get the takedown he’ll have a good chance to finish this fight, but all signs are pointing in the direction of Overeem using his standup advantage to win this fight.
- The co-main event has a very wide line in Makhachev’s favor, but I wouldn’t completely count out Tsarukyan. Although Makhachev has looked really good in his last couple of fights in the Octagon, Tsarukyan has won 12 fights in a row on the regional scene and actually has a bunch of wins over UFC veterans in his last couple of fights. Makhachev probably wins this fight, but I don’t like the odds here, and am tempted to take a punt on the dog.
- It’s hard not to like Pavlovich over Golm, but again, the odds seem too long in favor of the betting favorite. Pavlovich had a padded record coming into the UFC and got destroyed by Overeem in his debut, so I’m not sure why he’s such a massive favorite here. Even though Golm has lost two fights in a row by decision, he does have more UFC experience and has knockout power himself. It’s heavyweight MMA, so it’s a dog-or-pass situation at this line.
- Shtyrkov is someone who I have had my eye on for a while, and although he is fighting Clark on relatively short notice, he should be able to get the knockout in this one. Just take a look at Shtyrkov’s record and you’ll be impressed by what he’s done to a number of former UFC fighters in his last couple of fights. He should be able to smoke Clark here.
- And finally, how can you not like Shevchenko to beat Modafferi? Yeah, the odds are long, but there is a big athleticism gap here and the striking should be massively in Shevchenko’s favor. I’d rather lay big juice on Shevchenko than on some of the other favorites I wrote about above.
