If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at the Apex in Vegas, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Miranda Maverick $9,400
Maverick is somebody I like in all formats this week and I would try to lock her into a cash game lineup. She is the biggest favorite on the card at -645 and she already finished Young in the 1st round in the past. She would score well with another early finish, but she can also have wrestling success in each round and score well in a decision. That is what I like to target in general so for me it will just come down to being able to afford her in GPPs where she will be one of the most popular options.
GPP fight of the week – Shayilan Nuerdanbieke $8,900 vs Darrick Minner $7,300
This is my favorite GPP fight on the card because both guys have 100+ ceilings and I don’t expect this to go the distance. Minner is a kill or be killed fighter and those are always fights that we want to load up on in GPPs. If Minner wins, there is a good chance it is in the first half of the fight and at $7.3k, he will make the optimal lineup. He could score well in a decision too if he doesn’t gas out and can grapple for 3 rounds. He is more likely to fall apart after round 1 though and that is what puts Nuerdanbieke in play. He has KO power in every round and Minner has been submitted 8 times already. Nuerdanbieke should also have a wrestling edge in rounds 2 or 3 so I just like targeting this fight as a whole and hoping the winner is on the $100k lineup. Minner is my preferred play though because if he hits his ceiling then fighters priced around him can’t really match it where that isn’t the same case for Nuerdanbieke in his salary range. Avoid it in cash games but this is close to an all-in GPP fight for me.
Underdog play of the week – Ramona Pascual $7,700
Pascual is my preferred play in this fight for all formats. I don’t see her having a big ceiling, but she is an underdog I am picking to win, and she can 10x this price tag in a decision win. She is somebody I want exposure to because there are only a hand full of underdogs that I have much interest in, but she shouldn’t be too popular and I like my curtain jerkers. I didn’t see anything from Vidal that made me think she should be the favorite in this matchup so give me some exposure to a lower owned Pascual this week.
Fade of the week – Neil Magny $8,400
I don’t want Magny exposure because I would rather target favorites I am picking to win and that I believe have higher ceilings. Magny has scored 75, 72, and 63 in 3 of his last 4 wins and those won’t cut it as a favorite. He isn’t a high-volume striker, and he isn’t a great wrestler either. That is why he is my fade of the week and a fighter I will be X’ing out of my player pool.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 228-215 for +242.40u (+$24,240) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
