If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in Vegas, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $450,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Joe Pyfer $9,700
Pyfer should be an easy win here, so I like him a lot in cash games. It just comes down to if we can afford the $9.7k salary or not in GPPs. Pyfer should be able to wrestle when he wants to here and he can get the TKO on the feet or the ground. I expect over 100 points from Pyfer with a 1st round finish, but he really needs to be the highest scorer on the slate at his price for GPPs. If you want to fade him at his price and ownership then I think that is OK in the tournaments, but for cash games, just give me the easy win.
GPP fight of the week – Gregory Rodrigues $8,200 vs Chidi Njokuani $8,000
This is my favorite GPP fight on the card with it being the mid-ranged priced fight and it having a -250 FDNGTD line. Njokuani can get a knockout in any round and that is his ceiling for DK. He won’t be looking to wrestle, and he doesn’t strike at a high enough pace to score well in a decision. Rodrigues does have a questionable chin and cardio though and Njokuani has back-to-back 1st round KO’s. He is also the betting favorite priced as the underdog. Rodrigues is my preferred play though because he should have a big edge on the ground, and he also has KO upside. He has more ways to score 100+ here and if he fights smart then he should be a decent sized favorite if we knew he would grapple. He is a good striker as well though and can win this fight on the feet, it’s just a much more dangerous gameplan. He will be one of my top plays on the slate though and this is the closest to an all-in fight on the card as it gets for me. GPP only though.
Underdog play of the week – Tony Gravely $7,600
Gravely is an underdog that has 100+ potential with his KO power and his wrestling ability. He doesn’t even need a finish to score 100 because he can rack up takedowns and score well in a decision. The high ceilings are what I want to target and if he wins, he probably scores enough to make the optimal lineup. I do think he can be finished on the feet or the ground in this matchup so it’s not a safe play at all, but it is more of a boom/bust type play, and I like targeting those in GPPs.
Fade of the week – Loma Lookboonmee $9,500
Lookboonmee is my fade of the week at $9.5k. She is only +380 ITD and she doesn’t do enough to score great in a decision. Her best win was 91 DK points and that was with a lot of grappling. Even if she has that same success here, it won’t be enough at that salary. If she wins, she probably scores closer to 70 than 100, so I will just X her out of my player pool and get leverage to the other big favorites that I do like.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 222-209 for +236.85u (+$23,685) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
