Big Marley’s UFC 279 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Vegas, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $750,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Khamzat Chimaev $9,600

Chimaev is my cash game play of the week with his -520 betting line. He has scored 101, 117, 127, 122, and 124 in his 5 UFC wins and he can probably score more than all of those if he dominates in a wrestling-heavy decision. Vettori took Holland down 11 times so I am sure Chimaev can do the same and possibly finish within 25 minutes.

GPP fight of the week – Ion Cutelaba $8,600 vs Johnny Walker $7,600

This is one of the best GPP fights on the card with its -450 FDNGTD line. Johnny Walker has slate-breaking KO upside, and he has never scored under 100 DK points in a win. When he wins, he knocks people out early and he is in play for that again in this spot. I do want to get leverage on Walker if I can, but my preferred play is going to be Cutelaba. He has early KO upside as well, but he can score well in a decision by racking up takedowns, where Walker doesn’t have much of a ceiling if he did win a decision. Cutelaba has scored over 100 in most of his wins as well and he even scored 89 in a draw a couple of fights ago. I expect the winner of this fight to score around 100 or more and at their prices, that should put them on the optimal lineup. I want this fight in most of the GPP lineups I create but I would look for safer plays in a cash game lineup.

Underdog play of the week – Macy Chiasson $7,400

Chiasson is my underdog play of the week because she can score 30-40+ in a loss which is solid for cash games, and she scores well in wins which is great for GPPs. She has never won with a score that would disappoint at $7.4k but she has 5 wins with over 100 DK points, including her last win which was a decision. If she wins this fight, she should score well, and she can compete for the optimal lineup if she is able to score near 100.

Fade of the week – Melissa Martinez $8,500 vs Elise Reed $7,700

I am going to X this fight out of my player pool. Reed would be my preferred play of the two because she is cheaper, and I am picking her to win. I don’t see much of a ceiling for her though, so I like her more for cash games and I just have zero interest in this fight for GPPs. They will be low owned so if you want to take a shot on either of them for that reason and hope something crazy happens then that is fine in a large field GPP.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 221-208 for +237.50u (+$23,750) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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