Big Marley’s UFC London 2 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in London, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Nathaniel Wood $9,400

This is Wood or pass for me, but he is $9.4k and he only has a +200 ITD line so we can get away from this fight in GPPs. Wood could dominate and still score under 10x in a decision win here. He is my most confident pick on the card though so I like him for cash games, and I would be ok going him over Mokaev in cash where we don’t care about the ceiling as much. I am also totally ok with the main event stack as the cash game play of the week but Wood feels like a “safe” pick and that is what I like in cash games.

GPP fight of the week – Jonathan Pearce $8,700 vs Makwan Amirkhani $7,500

I love this fight for GPPs, and it is close to an all-in fight. If Amirkhani wins then he probably scores over 95 points because I would expect a 1st round submission. He is one of the better boom/bust underdog plays on the slate for that reason, but GPP only. Pearce can finish this fight in any round, and I would expect him to be able to dominate the last half of the fight. If Amirkhani does slow down, then I don’t see him making it to the final bell. I want this fight in ¾ of my GPP lineups and Pearce is my preferred play of the two.

Underdog play of the week – Paul Craig $7,700

This is another great GPP fight to target with a -360 FDNGTD line. I wouldn’t expect to see either score well in a decision win, but I also don’t expect it to go to a decision. Volkan should score well with a KO and Craig should score well with a sub. That is what I am targeting. I will be overweight on the Craig side though and he is one of my top underdog plays because I am picking him to get a 1st round submission.

Fade of the week – Nicolas Dalby $8,800

Dalby is a full fade for me this week because he is priced too high, and I would rather pay up for basically anybody else in his range. The only way I see him making the optimal lineup would be a 1st round TKO and I will take my chances on that not happening. He isn’t a high-volume striker, and he shouldn’t be looking to take Silva down because Silva is the better grappler. Even if Dalby does get a 1st round finish, then he still might not make the optimal lineup because this week is stacked in the top range, and I will be X’ing him out of my player pool.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 212-204 for +230.93u (+$23,093) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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