If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Vegas, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – David Onama $9,300
This is going to be Onama or pass for me in all formats and he is one of the top cash plays on the slate with his -750 betting line. Armfield is only in play as a low owned GPP play in hopes of a KO. Onama has a -165 ITD line and he can knock this guy out in any round, and he is the one who had a full training camp. If he doesn’t get the knockout, then he might not make the optimal lineup, but he is the “safest” play on the card and he is only priced at $9.3k so it should be pretty easy to get to him in cash games.
GPP fight of the week – Ronnie Lawrence $8,400 vs Saidyokub Kakhromanov $7,800
This is one of my top GPP fights on the card because both guys have solid ceilings and if they get 100 DK points then they are mostly likely making the optimal lineup at these salaries. I love the pace from Lawrence, and he has scored 135 and 131 in his first 2 UFC fights. Anybody who can land double-digit takedowns in a fight is going to be on my DraftKings radar and if he is going to win this fight then I expect him to land takedowns in each round and score well in a decision win. If Kakhromanov wins, he probably finishes Lawrence and that is going to score well also, unless he loses two rounds and gets it in the 3rd. I think the winner of this fight will help somebody win $100k so I will just be loading up on both sides.
Underdog play of the week – Rafael Dos Anjos $7,200
RDA is my favorite underdog of the week because he has one of the highest ceilings on the card. He is $1,800 cheaper than Fiziev, but he has the higher ceiling because he is the one that is more likely to grapple. He is coming off a 155-point performance in his last fight and he had 135 the fight before that. Those scores aren’t even possible for Fiziev unless he got 3-5 knockdowns. He is a pure striker and if he doesn’t get a knockout then he isn’t going to put up high scores in decision wins. Even with 5-rounds to work with, I don’t see him hitting 100 DK points if he wins a decision here. RDA can put up a high-pace for 25-minutes and he is the one that should be looking to grapple in this fight. If he wins, he is a lock to score over 10x and it will probably be closer to a 100 and on the optimal lineup.
Fade of the week – Antonina Shevchenko $8,700
Either side of this fight can score well with a finish, but it is going to be more of a fight to fade for me because I expect a striking match and we have a -185 FGTD line. Shevchenko is going to be a full fade for me because it will be a lot harder for her to pay off an $8.7k salary if this goes the distance. She isn’t a high-paced striker, and I wouldn’t expect more than 1-2 takedowns from her. If she wins a decision, then I doubt she even hits 10x.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 209-200 for +233.18u (+$23,318) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
