Big Marley’s UFC 276 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $800,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Israel Adesanya $9,400

Izzy is the highest priced guy on the card, and he doesn’t strike at a high pace or look to wrestle so he probably won’t score well in a decision win. We can get away from him in GPPs for that reason, and he will have a decent amount of ownership being the main-event in a 5-round fight. I do like him a lot for cash games though because I am not as worried about his ceiling in those formats, and he is the only “safe” play on this slate. He is a much better striker than Cannonier and as long as he doesn’t get knocked out, he should win. Cash games are all about safety so I would try to squeeze him in there and if you want to fade him thinking he scores 75 DK points in a decision win, then do that in GPPs.

GPP fight of the week – Andre Muniz $9,200 vs Uriah Hall $7,000

This is one of the better GPP fights on the card to target with its -500 FDNGTD line and that is the highest on the card. Muniz is my preferred play, and he has a -120 sub prop and a -200 ITD line. He might end up being one of my favorite plays on the slate because if he is going to win then it is going to come through the ground game and that is what scores well. The early submission is what I’d really be hoping for here but even if he wins a decision then I would expect to see multiple takedowns and 7+ minutes of top control time. That should still score well. If he loses, then there is a good shot he gets knocked out with all 4 of his losses coming that way and Hall’s big advantage in this matchup is his striking. That is what puts Hall in play as well and if he gets an early KO then he will be on the optimal lineup.

Underdog play of the week – Dricus Du Plessis $8,000

I am picking Tavares in this fight, but I don’t see him scoring well unless he can get a finish and I would think it is a later finish if he does. Du Plessis is actually my preferred DFS play because he has the ceiling here and if he gets another early finish then he is likely on the optimal lineup at $8k. He scored 108 and 110 in his two UFC fights so far and he is in play for that again. He is also the betting favorite at -150 now so there is some value on his salary and that puts him in play for cash games as well. Du Plessis is one of the better “underdogs” on the card so I would probably want a minimum of 15-20% of him even though I am picking him to lose.

Fade of the week – Jessica-Rose Clark $8,600

This is not my favorite curtain jerker for DFS. In JRC’s last two wins she did score 90 and 105 DK points. I do like those numbers, but she had 8 minutes of control time and a 3rd round finish for the 105 and she had 5 takedowns and almost 13 minutes for that 90 score. She can score well again if she wants to use her wrestling, but I don’t think this is a smart matchup to wrestle heavily. She can win this fight on the feet and if she does then she probably doesn’t score well. That is why Clark is going to be my fade of the week, but this is a card where I wouldn’t feel good about X’ing out any favorites.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 209-197 for +238.18u (+$23,818) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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