If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in Vegas back at the Apex, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Erin Blanchfield $9,600
If Blanchfield is going to wrestle in all 3 rounds, then she is going to win and score well. She has landed 10 takedowns in her 2 UFC fights with an insane 90% accuracy and that is her clear PTV in this match. I would be shocked to see her get finished so she has a floor I like for cash games. She scored 115 and 126 in those two fights and if she does that again then she will be on the optimal for GPPs as well.
GPP fight of the week – Alonzo Menifield $8,700 vs Askar Mozharov $7,500
I don’t see the judges being needed for this one. Silva is a kill or be killed fighter with 19 of his 21 wins coming in the 1st round. 7 of his 8 losses are also 1st round finishes. Menifield is also a killer early with 8 of his 11 wins coming in round 1. This is the best GPP fight on the card with its -900 FDNGTD line. That implies that this fight ends early 90% of the time and that is about where I would want my total exposure. Either guy can win this fight in the 1st round and maybe even get the 60-second bonus. Menifield is my preferred play, but Mozharov has one of the highest ceilings for the underdogs, so I want a lot of him too. Fade this fight in cash games because we can’t trust either floor but load up in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week – Jairzinho Rozenstruik $7,600
This fight will be in most of my lineups because it is 5-rounds. Rozenstruik is in play for GPPs because he has one of the highest ceilings with his KO upside. If he gets a KO in round 1 or 2 then he is most likely on the optimal lineup. I just don’t see him having a chance at a high score or even winning if he doesn’t get a KO so I wouldn’t want to bet him at these odds and I think DraftKings is the best way to get any exposure to him rather than betting the ITD line at a similar price. I am picking him to lose this fight, but he is one of two underdogs who can break the slate with a 60-second KO and ceilings like that are what we want to target on DraftKings.
Fade of the week – Mike Trizano $9,100
Trizano is my fade of the week because of his $9.1k price tag. He isn’t much of a finisher, but he is going to need a finish to pay off this tag and make the optimal lineup. Almeida does have defensive flaws and Trizano will be low-owned, so that is the only real reason to play him if you want to be contrarian. His 3 wins in the UFC scored 59, 66, and 65. All 3 of those scores will kill your lineup at this salary and that makes him an easy fade for me.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 204-191 for +236.86u (+$23,686) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
